First, the economy in 2012 has to be either stagnant or in decline in the 10 or so key electoral states (especially the ones in the Midwest) as he heads into the election … Second, no new major international crisis arises that causes people to rally behind Obama because of his competent handling of it … Third, a Republican nominee has to emerge who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country’s economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with.
— GOP strategist Matthew Dowd, on the three things that must happen — simultaneously — for Obama to lose in 2012, because the historical odds heavily favor the president’s re-election.
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