Pensito Flu Update: Assessing the Severity of an Influenza Pandemic

From ProMed:

The major determinant of the severity of an influenza pandemic, as measured by the number of cases of severe illness and deaths it causes, is the inherent virulence of the virus. However, many other factors influence the overall severity of a pandemic’s impact.

While not all people ever become infected during a pandemic, nearly all people are susceptible to infection.

Even a pandemic virus that initially causes mild symptoms in otherwise healthy people can be disruptive, especially under the conditions of today’s highly mobile and closely interdependent societies. Moreover, the same virus that causes mild illness in one country can result in much higher morbidity and mortality in another. In addition, the inherent virulence of the virus can change over time as the pandemic goes through subsequent waves of national and international spread.

Properties of the virus
– ———————–
An influenza pandemic is caused by a virus that is either entirely new or has not circulated recently and widely in the human population. This creates an almost universal vulnerability to infection. While not all people ever become infected during a pandemic, nearly all people are susceptible to infection.

The occurrence of large numbers of people falling ill at or around the same time is one reason why pandemics are socially and economically disruptive, with a potential to temporarily overburden health services.

The contagiousness of the virus also influences the severity of a pandemic’s impact, as it can increase the number of people falling ill and needing care within a short time frame in a given geographical area. On the positive side, not all parts of the world, or all parts of a country, are affected at the same time.

The contagiousness of the virus will influence the speed of spread, both within countries and internationally. This, too, can influence severity, as very rapid spread can undermine the capacity of governments and health services to cope.

Pandemics usually have a concentrated adverse impact in specific age groups. Concentrated illnesses and deaths in a young, economically productive age group will be more disruptive to societies and economies than when the very young or very old are most severely affected, as seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza.

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What Wanda Sykes Didn’t Say About Rush

Who knew the mere mention of Rush Limbaugh could get so many people laughing? The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank asked readers for Rush Limbaugh jokes, a la Wanda Sykes, and boy did they respond. Some of our favorites:

  • Rush is a real patriot. I heard he donated blood for the swine flu vaccine.
  • Talent on (sub-prime) Loan From God.
  • Rush Limbaugh: Too big to fail.
  • Rush Limbaugh…I hope his heart fails. Oh wait–it already has.
  • Rush thinks health care reform involves making it easier to go doctor shopping.
  • There’s a reason why Rush thinks gas is an inexhaustible resource.
  • Rush Limpbaugh is the Doughberry Pillboy of the GOP.
  • Rush would have been the 20th hijacker, but canceled when he learned the airlines were going to charge him for a second seat.
  • Rush Limbaugh, as head of the Republican Party, is less qualified to be VP than Sara (sic) Palin…. Rush can’t see Russia from his house. [Editor’s note: Technically, that’s a Sarah Palin joke]
  • Reports from the Pentagon brass indicate that Afghanistan could be stabilized if Rush could kick his drug habit.
  • What do you get when you cross OxyContin with Rush Limbaugh? An OxyMoron…
  • Ever notice you never see Rush and Satan in the same place?
  • I agree that Rush is the new face of the Republican Party. Oh, wait, I’m looking at the wrong end of the elephant.

How about you? If this list inspired a Rush joke, please leave it in a comment.

Bonus Quote du Jour

Why get in a fight with Rush Limbaugh … It’s not a very comforting vision to say my vision for the Republican Party’s future is for Rush Limbaugh to shut up.

— Karl Rove, in an interview on Fox News, backing up former Vice President Dick Cheney in his recent skirmish with Colin Powell.

Quote du Jour

There’s been so much written about and spoken about in the mainstream media and in the anonymous blogosphere world, that this will be a wonderful, refreshing chance for me to get to tell my story, that a lot of people have asked about, unfiltered. Being a voracious reader, I read a lot today and have read a lot growing up. And having that journalism degree, all of that, will be a great assistance for me in writing this book, talking about the challenges and the joys, balancing the work and parenting, and, in my case, work means running the state. I’ve read a variety of books, and that helps shape my opinions and my views.

— Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) on writing a memoir that will be published in spring 2010 — the year she is up for re-election, according to the AP.

Cheney: Ending Torture Makes Us Vulnerable to Attacks

Dick Cheney’s is the gift that keeps on giving. On Fox today, he really said this:

“The bottom line is we successfully defended the nation for seven and a half years against a follow-on attack to 9/11. That was a remarkable achievement,” he told FOX News. “I think that we are stripping ourselves of some of the capabilities that we used in order to block, if you will, or disrupt activities by Al Qaeda that would have led to additional attacks.”

The primary “additional capabilities” Cheney referred to that Pres. Obama has “stripped” from the U.S. approach to dealing with terrorists is torture. Without torture as an interrogation technique, therefore, Obama is making us vulnerable to new terror attacks.

It is hard to parse what Cheney hopes to gain from this media junket. It smacks of desperation, in part because of the contrast between Cheney’s sudden availability now and his lack of availability to the media when he was in office. But mostly because he is such an unpopular figure — his approval rating was 13 percent when he left office — that it would be smarter if left the defense of his torture regime to others.

And that may well be the problem. There is no one else who is will step forward with as full-throated a defense of Torquemada’s torture techniques as old Torquemada himself.

Breaking: Republican Florida Gov. to Run for Senate Instead

Florida is abuzz over Gov. Charlie Crist’s announcement that, as pretty much anticipated, he will not seek a second term as governor but will run for the seat being vacated (how can we tell?) by Freshman Sen. Mel Martinez. Both men are Republicans.

Crist’s decision puts a lot of offices in Florida in play for 2010, while leaving his own career in doubt

Crist’s decision puts a lot of offices in Florida in play for 2010, while leaving his own career in doubt. It’s not a slam-dunk for Crist by any means, since former House Speaker Marco Rubio, who has also declared his run for the Senate, is a much closer match for the far-right agenda the Rush Limbaugh-Sarah Palin-John Boehner-Sean Hannity-Newt Gingrich-Bobby Jindall-Mitch McConnell-Dick Cheney wing of the party favors. By the way, is there another wing of the Republican party? Didn’t think so, which is why the moderate Crist is going to have a hard time finding a base.

If he makes it out of the primary, Crist would face state Sen. Dan Gelber or U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.

Meanwhile, the growing list of candidates for governor includes current state CFO Alex Sink, a Democrat who retired as a Bank of America president in the ’90s, back when banks were doing fine. Expect Republicans, who probably all hold stock in BofA, and/or sit on its board, to beat her up over that. On the Republican side, perennial candidate state Attorney General Bill McCollum says he’s got another race in him, hard as that is to believe.

More on this as the reactions roll in…

Quote du Jour

People that are social conservatives are also economic conservatives. But a lot of the economic conservatives are not social conservatives. Throw the social conservatives the pro-life, pro-family people overboard and the Republican party will be as irrelevant as the Whigs.

— Former presidential candidate and rock ‘n’ roller Mike Huckabee, in an interview with the Visalia Times-Delta

GOP’s New Leadership Takes the Stage: Cheney-Limbaugh 2012

Readers of the political tea leaves may have missed it, but it appears that the new leadership team of the GOP in exile unofficially assumed control yesterday.

On Sunday’s CBS’ “Face the Nation,” ex-Vice Pres. Dick Cheney endorsed the authoritarian extremist ideology of hate-radio entertainer Rush Limbaugh over the liberal Republican views of his own former secretary of state, Colin Powell. By aligning himself with Limbaugh, Cheney may have put an end to months of public and private infighting and what Beltway observers have described as a circular firing squad among the right’s putative leaders.

Since leaving office in disgrace in January, Cheney has emerged from behind the wall of secrecy, silence and spin where he hid during the eight years he was on the public payroll to become the chief spokesman both for the project to rewrite the history of the Cheney-Bush regime and for the conservative movement, which is in shambles primarily, and paradoxically, because of the ineptitude of the administration Cheney controlled.

At the same time that Cheney has emerged from his famous undisclosed location, Limbaugh has established himself as the movement’s iron-fisted enforcer of ideological purity and punisher of party fatcats who dare to challenge his primacy and movement orthodoxy.

In choosing to align himself with Limbaugh, a drug-addicted draft dodger, Cheney — who himself received five deferments from serving in Vietnam on the basis that he had “other priorities” — rejected Powell, the former Army general and head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:

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The Secret to George and Laura Bush’s Deviled Eggs Recipe – Dijon Mustard

From the Bush White House website, here is proof that Sean Hannity is right, for once: Dijon mustard is what the elite like to eat. If the right wing’s own aristocratic Dear Leader — the grandson of Sen. Prescott Bush of Connecticut and a direct descendant of Pres. Franklin Pierce, no less — puts it in his egg salad, it must be fancy:

President and Laura Bush’s Deviled Eggs Recipe

12 large eggs, boiled hard and peeled
1 Tbsp (plus) soft butter
1 Tbsp (plus) mayonnaise
1 Tbsp Dijon mustard
1/2 tsp Yucatan Sunshine Habanero sauce
Salt to taste

Cut eggs in half and set aside. Put egg yolks in food processor and add all ingredients. Process for 20 seconds or until mixture has blended. Check for taste and increase mustard, salt or Habanero sauce if desired. Place mixture in piping bag with star tip and pipe into egg halves. Sprinkle with paprika and chopped parsley. Chill for about an hour before serving.

Note about Yucatan Sunshine Habanero sauce: Habanero is a type of hot sauce, which can be substituted with Tabasco sauce. Yucatan Sunshine and other brands of the sauce can be purchased at most local supermarkets nationwide. The Bushes used the Yucatan Sunshine Habanero when living in Texas, and now the White House chef uses the sauce in a variety of recipes.

Personally, there are few flavors I hate more than hot mustard, so I prefer good ol’ American French’s.