Long shots: The MSM has predictably focused on the front runners in the 2008 presidential race: Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. But according to the National Journal’s poll of D.C. insiders, several lower-tier candidates could jump the pack, while some are undoubtably road-kill, even this early in the race.
Democrats largely agreed that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson ought not be underestimated. A 46-percent plurality of the Democratic insiders said the former energy secretary and U.N. ambassador’s foreign and domestic policy experience could eventually propel him to the front of the pack.
Other less mainstream candidates were also seen as having a shot. A quarter saw hope for former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and 23 percent said Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd could possibly pull it off. One insider said about Vilsack, “I know it’s not the ‘exciting’ pick right now, [but] he’s a former governor, a Washington outsider, and he’s serious about serious things.” As for Dodd, “he can raise money, has a network across the country,” and “is liked by just about everyone in the party.”
Insiders largely deemed Biden’s candidacy and a potential Wesley Clark bid as DOA, and not one of the 81 Democrats surveyed picked Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich or former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel.
Nearly half of the 81 GOP insiders said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich could make a huge comeback. Describing GOP primary voters as “somewhat desperate,” one insider predicted, “Newt’s star will shine brighter and brighter.”
Rounding out GOP insiders’ top three dark-horse picks were staunch conservatives Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas (20 percent) and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas (12 percent). Front-runners Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain are best known for being moderate Republicans, although McCain has been trying to shore up his social-conservative credibility for some time and Romney is dogged by his Mormon faith and his past statements on abortion.
An insider who tapped the Republican from a place called Hope said Huckabee was “the buzz in New Hampshire,” adding, “The top tier all appear to have ‘junk in the trunk'” — a term usually applied to women’s derrieres. Neither Reps. Duncan Hunter of California nor Tom Tancredo of Colorado received a single vote, and 5 percent said none of the lower-tier hopefuls would be taken seriously by 2008.
