In the unlikely event that Sen. Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee for president in 2008, I will vote for him in the general election that November. However, I will be very surprised if there is any chance he will win.
It is a harsh indictment, I know, but while Americans will vote a functionally retarded white guy into the Oval Office twice, there is no chance in hell the country is ready to vote for a black person or, for that matter, a white woman.
I agree that he has all the attributes ascribed to him by the Gang of 500 — he’s smart, well-spoken and telegenic, and all of those qualities would be a refreshing change after eight years of Bush. Unfortunately, none of those qualities will have an impact, finally, on his ability to win.
His lack of experience is a factor, but the main reason he’ll lose, I’m sorry to say, is his father’s race.
It appeals to our higher selves to believe that America is ready to elect an African-American president. Unfortunately, recent electoral history indicates otherwise:
- Harold Ford Jr.’s loss of the Tennessee senate seat to the revolting Bob Corker last year.
- Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt’s two close losses to the even more revolting Sen. Jesse Helms in North Carolina a decade ago.
- Former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s two losses to the odious Gov. George Deukmejian in California in the 1980s.
In each of these cases, white independent voters just couldn’t vote for a black candidate, even though in each instance the black candidate was equally or more intelligent, articulate and experienced than the white candidate.
There were other factors, of course. Both Gantt and Bradley were mayors of the biggest cities in their states, and thus stigmatized in the eyes of rural voters. Both Gantt and Ford were targeted with racist advertising. Sen. Helms ran an ad showing a white man receiving a rejection letter for a job purportedly because a black man had been given “his” job because of affirmative action. Ford was the target of the infamous “Harold, call me” ad that implied he dated white women, heaven forfend.
In the cases of both Bradley and Gantt, polling throughout the election showed close races, but on election day, the white candidates won decided victories. So white people were telling pollsters they would vote for a black candidate but couldn’t actually do it when the time came.
Of course, Deval Patrick was elected last year as Massachusetts’ first black governor, and as a presidential candidate, it wouldn’t surprise me if Obama were to win Massachusetts. He might even win all the states John Kerry won in 2004, but as we saw then, that was not enough.
Every election is momentous but the stakes are as high as they can be in 2008. The future of the United States depends on a Democratic victory. It is a harsh indictment, I know, but while Americans will vote a functionally retarded white guy into the Oval Office twice, there is no chance in hell the country is ready to elect a black person or, for that matter, a white woman.
Like all good liberals, I yearn for the day when race, gender and, what the heck, sexual orientation, are not a factor in who we elect to be president. And while I wish Sen. Obama well in the coming campaign, unfortunately, America is not there yet.