Day: December 18, 2006

2008 Senate Races: 12 Dem Seats Vs. 21 GOP Seats Up for Grabs

Jon Ponder

Bob Geiger has put together this list of U.S. Senate candidates up for reelection in 2008. My very early handicapping is on the right:

Democrats (12) Handicap
Max Baucus (D-MT) Vulnerable:Isn’t Baucus retiring? If so, a Republican could take it.
Joseph Biden (D-DE) Safe Dem: Even if Biden drops out to campaign for president full time.
Richard Durbin (D-IL) Safe Dem.
Tom Harkin (D-IA) Safe Dem.
Tim Johnson (D-SD) Vulnerable: Unless the senator makes a full recovery.
John Kerry (D-MA) Safe Dem. Kerry won’t give up his seat even if he runs for president again.
Mary Landrieu (D-LA) Vulnerable: As Bob Geiger pointed out, Landrieu’s base may have been expatriated from Louisiana by Katrina.
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) Vulnerable: Because Jersey was so weird this year. (Lautenberg might retire again.)
Carl Levin (D-MI) Safe Dem.
Mark Pryor (D-AR) Vulnerable:It’s Arkansas.
Jack Reed (D-RI) Safe Dem.
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) Safe Dem.

Safe Dems: 7 – Vulnerable: 5

Republicans (21) Handicap
Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Vulnerable: He just is.
Wayne Allard (R-CO) Vulnerable: He’s a rank ideologue and Colorado is in play for Dems.
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) Safe GOP.
Thad Cochran (R-MS) Safe GOP.
Norm Coleman (R-MN) Vulnerable: Al Franken could take him out, as could any decent candidate.
Susan Collins (R-ME) Safe GOP.
John Cornyn (R-TX) Safe GOP: It’s Texas.
Larry Craig (R-ID) Safe GOP: Despite gay rumors.
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) Safe GOP: John Edwards should run against Liddy, but he is running for President of Never Gonna Happen instead.
Pete Domenici (R-NM) Safe GOP.
Michael Enzi (R-WY) Safe: Admittedly, Enzi is a cipher to me, but it’s Wyoming.
Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Safe GOP: Even if Graham becomes McCain’s running mate.
Chuck Hagel (R-NE) Safe: Even if Hagel runs for president.
James Inhofe (R-OK) Safe GOP: And more’s the pity.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Safe GOP.
Pat Roberts (R-KS) Safe GOP.
Jeff Sessions (R-AL) Safe GOP.
Gordon Smith (R-OR) Vulnerable: Smith’s come-to-Jesus on the war was a smart move.
Ted Stevens (R-AK) Safe GOP.
John Sununu (R-NH) Vulnerable: It’s New Hampshire, and John Jr. won by a sliver last time.
John Warner (R-VA) Safe GOP: Even though Warner will be 80 in February.

Safe GOP: 15 – Vulnerable: 6

Quote du Jour

Buck Banks

It would be an entirely different question if the country’s life was in danger, its existence at stake; then we would all come forward and stand by the flag, and stop thinking about whether the nation was right or wrong; but when there is no question that the nation is in any danger, but only some little war away off, then it may be that on the question of politics the nation is divided, half-patriot and half-traitors, and no man can tell the difference.

— Mark Twain

Friedman: What History Will Damn Bush For

Trish

Reality is — unfortunately for the Bush Team — ideology-free.The New York Times’ “conservative” David Brooks and “liberal” Thomas Freidman reacted to clips shown by host Tim Russert on Meet the Press Sunday. The spots were of the First Lady and former Defense Secretary again bemoaning that the media doesn’t report on all the good things happening in Iraq.

Tim Russert: “What do you think?”

Brooks: “Get off of it!

“We’ve got a hero in our newspaper, John Burns, another hero, Dexter Filkins, a whole series of heroes over there. They’re not biased about this. They want the best for the Iraqi people, they want democracy. Listen to what they’re reporting. They’re reporting chaos. You have a hundred — I don’t know what it is — 1.6 million people leaving Iraq. You’ve got 9,000 Iraqis every week who are moving to the Shiia homeland or the Sunni homeland. This is a country…It’s not civil war, it’s just disintegration.

“So the idea that this is just some media concoction…I said that a year ago, two years ago, but at some point you have to face reality.”

Freidman: …The problem is, when you hear the First Lady, when you think of the way Bush is running this war, he thinks that in the Middle East, the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. It’s all straight, it’s a matter of just add a little more force here and you know, give another speech there. [Speaking slowly] It’s insane.

“I wanted this to suceed, you how, as much as anybody. Alright? Because I thought it was really important. I thought it was really important and really hard. And to me, what history will damn these people for is they thought it was really important and really easy.”

Pensito Review Named Time Magazine’s Person of the Year

Buck Banks

Humbled yet proud: Time magazine has named Pensito Review its Person of the Year, and we are happier than pigs in poop. Okay, technically the magazine didn’t name Pensito Review per se, but, as the Associated Press put it:

If you choose millions of people, you don’t have to justify it to anyone.

The annual honor for 2006 went to each and every one of us, as Time cited the shift from institutions to individuals — citizens of the new digital democracy, as the magazine put it. The winners this year were anyone using or creating content on the World Wide Web.

By those terms, Pensito Review certainly qualifies as Person of the Year. Hey, we create content, man. Currently, we have posted 3,228 (counting this one) posts. Our readers are almost as prolific, posting nearly 5,500 comments or complaints, so they get to share the singular honor of Person of the Yearhood with fellow digital democrats Jon, Trish and me.

Of course, some will say that Time was just being lazy in picking millions of people when there were so many stand-outs last year: Kim Jong Il, Vladimir “Polonium” Putin, George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, Newt Gingrich, Nicole Richie — the list just goes on and on. But Time’s editor explains very well why they went with the cyber masses:

”If you choose an individual, you have to justify how that person affected millions of people,” said Richard Stengel, who took over as Time’s managing editor earlier this year. “But if you choose millions of people, you don’t have to justify it to anyone.”

Oh wait, some of those folks on my list actually did receive honorable mentions:

The magazine did cite 26 ”People Who Mattered,” from North Korean dictator Kim Jon Il to Pope Benedict XVI to the troika of President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Hey, and since George Bush uses The Internets to access The Google, there’s a passing chance that he posted content, too, qualifying for double honors. Unfortunately, Time Managing Editor Stengel couldn’t leave well enough alone:

Stengel said if the magazine had decided to go with an individual, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the likely choice. ”It just felt to me a little off selecting him,” Stengel said.

A … little … off? Come on, Time, don’t cheapen our laurels! We deserve to be right up there with Bill and Melinda Gates, and Bono (last year’s PoYs). Leave Mahmoud out of it, man.

How Did Giuliani become ‘America’s Mayor’ – And How Long Will It Take for Americans to See That He Is a Class-A Jerk?

Jon Ponder

California Conservatives may not be great in number but they do have a lot of money. That must be why former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani — a flaming liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights — is planning to speak at the state Republican convention in February.

An article yesterday in the San Franciso Chronicle about Giuliani’s upcoming visit gave this glowing account of his resume:

Giuliani, called “America’s mayor” after his formidable performance in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, already has established a camaraderie with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — a Republican in the same moderate, bipartisan mold who also supports gay rights, abortion rights and stem cell research.

“Formidable?” I guess I was watching another channel when Rudy was being formidable. All I saw from him after the 9/11 attacks was a mayor doing his job.

We are disaster prone here in California but when our elected officials do their jobs efficiently in the aftermath of an earthquake, a riot or a brushfire, we don’t make them into saints — hell, sometimes we don’t even reelect them.

My theory is that Rudy was deified by the national media, which happens to be headquartered in his hometown, because, as individuals whose city had been attacked, they were scared and needed a leader. They were smart enough to know that Pres. Bush was play-acting at leadership that day he climbed on the rubble of the World Trade Center and shouted bumpersticker slogans at firefighters — and Giuliani was at least competent to lead.

As fouled up as New York City can be, its residents do not live with the constant presence of looming disaster, like those of us who live in areas prone to hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes. I have a theory that, goddess forbid, if the attacks had happened in Miami, Witchita or San Francisco, there would have been less soul searching before everybody rolled up their sleeves, cleaned up the mess and got back to their routines.

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