Chris Bowers reports from Connecticut that predictions that Sen. Joe Lieberman might lose to Ned Lamont by double-digits may have been wishful thinking. A number of factors appear to be leading to very tight race on Tuesday:
- Intense media scrutiny tends to increase voting by “low information” voters:
Due to the low information voters factor, analysts have always believed that higher turnout, which will bring in more low-information voters, will help Lieberman. This is similar to the problem Paul Hackett faced in the OH-02 last summer…
A similar phenomenon is happening in Connecticut. The closer Ned Lamont appear to come to victory on August 8th, the more the media pays attention to what could potentially become a major event in recent American political history. The media attention n this race could now barely become any greater… The rather stunning amount of attention that has been paid to this race will drive up turnout. This will increase the number of low-information voters within the electorate, and that will help Joe Lieberman. That fact alone makes the polls less favorable to Ned Lamont that they currently appear to be.
- Remarkably high new voter registrations among Connecticut Dems:
Only around 130,000 Democrats voted in the 2004 presidential primary in Connecticut, so for roughly 22,000 people to register as Democrats since May 8th (the last day Republicans could switch to Dem), is astonishing.
Bowers concludes:
Combine new voter registrations with low information voters with what is clearly a still massive Lieberman ground game–a ground game that analysts have said can add up to five point for Lieberman in this election–and suddenly you have an election within the margin of error. Throw in both public and internal polls that show the race closer than the 13 point Lamont lead from the Q-poll, and you have an election teetering on a knife edge. For Lamont backers, our concern right now should not be with blowing Lieberman out, but rather with winning this election at all.
