Day: August 5, 2006

CT Sen: National Media Interest Could Ignite Joe-mentum – and Lamont Could Lose

Jon Ponder

Chris Bowers reports from Connecticut that predictions that Sen. Joe Lieberman might lose to Ned Lamont by double-digits may have been wishful thinking. A number of factors appear to be leading to very tight race on Tuesday:

  • Intense media scrutiny tends to increase voting by “low information” voters:

Due to the low information voters factor, analysts have always believed that higher turnout, which will bring in more low-information voters, will help Lieberman. This is similar to the problem Paul Hackett faced in the OH-02 last summer…

A similar phenomenon is happening in Connecticut. The closer Ned Lamont appear to come to victory on August 8th, the more the media pays attention to what could potentially become a major event in recent American political history. The media attention n this race could now barely become any greater… The rather stunning amount of attention that has been paid to this race will drive up turnout. This will increase the number of low-information voters within the electorate, and that will help Joe Lieberman. That fact alone makes the polls less favorable to Ned Lamont that they currently appear to be.

  • Remarkably high new voter registrations among Connecticut Dems:

Only around 130,000 Democrats voted in the 2004 presidential primary in Connecticut, so for roughly 22,000 people to register as Democrats since May 8th (the last day Republicans could switch to Dem), is astonishing.

Bowers concludes:

Combine new voter registrations with low information voters with what is clearly a still massive Lieberman ground game–a ground game that analysts have said can add up to five point for Lieberman in this election–and suddenly you have an election within the margin of error. Throw in both public and internal polls that show the race closer than the 13 point Lamont lead from the Q-poll, and you have an election teetering on a knife edge. For Lamont backers, our concern right now should not be with blowing Lieberman out, but rather with winning this election at all.

Clinton Praises Gore at Tenn. Rally

Jon Ponder

Rapprochement?

Former President Bill Clinton wasn’t just supporting current Democratic candidates at a Tennessee political rally Thursday night.

Speaking to supporters of Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford Jr., Clinton also praised Al Gore, his former vice president. Gore did not attend.

“I ran a partnership, not a one-man show,” Clinton said about his presidency. “And if it hadn’t been for Al Gore, a lot of those things wouldn’t have happened.”

Clinton said he has been “tickled” to see the global response to Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth.”

“I called him the other day and told him: ‘You know Hillary and I went to see your movie at our local theater. The first time, we couldn’t get in, it was full,”‘ he said. “We had to just walk away and walk on home.”

Betrayal: Speilberg, Katzenberg Endorse Schwarzenegger

Jon Ponder
“It starts with a personal relationship. They are friends.”
— Spokesman

There have a pair of corollary events in the California governor’s race this week.

First, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger appointed former Rep. James Rogan to the state bench. Rogan, an ultra-rightwinger from Glendale, made his mark on history as one of the House Managers in the Clinton impeachment.

A few days after this prime example of a Republican governor busily packing California courts with rightwing, activist idealogues comes word of an audacious slap in the face to California Democrats:

Some of Hollywood’s most reliable and generous donors to the Democratic Party — Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and media mogul Haim Saban — are endorsing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s bid for reelection.

Their support is partly a matter of friendship over partisanship. But it could deal a blow to the governor’s main opponent, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, by signaling to other Democrats that it’s acceptable to embrace a Republican.

“It starts with a personal relationship. They are friends,” said Andy Spahn, a spokesman for both Spielberg and Katzenberg.

The two men also like Schwarzenegger’s plans to tackle global warming and fund schools. But further, Spahn said, “they are receptive to the governor’s taking a less partisan approach to the job and a more inclusive approach to government.”

This defection comes as the fortunes of Democratic challenger Phil Angelides appear to be fading fast, and there is a whiff of rats deserting the sinking ship. It is also reckless. Schwarzenegger has been penned in this year because it’s an election year and because of his disastrous performance last year, but any number of factors could set him free to pursue the ideological interests of his party.

You would be hard pressed to find any Democrats in California who think a return to the agenda enacted during the 16 years of Republican rule that ended with the term of Gov. Pete Wilson, Schwarzenegger’s mentor, would be anything but destructive for the state.

True, the political influence of these moguls is limited, but their endorsement gives Schwarzenegger cover from namebrand California liberals that he has not earned and never will.

It reeks of cronyism. These guys can conveniently forget that Arnold believes he’s Ronald Reagan reincarnate because their relationship with him is based on business. After all, they’ll be working and socializing with him long after his second term.