Ripples in the “wave”: While it seems that most commentators have been focused on the opportunities for the Democratic Party to gain House congressional seats in the midterms, Nathan L. Gonzales notes in the Rothenberg Political Report that in the past 50 years, no party has won seats without losing at least one. If that’s the case, argues Gonzales, then rather than the 15 seats the Dems need to gain a majority in the House, they might need 16 or 17 — or maybe 26!
Gonzales notes: “In the last 50 years, no party has been completely shutout in the takeover columns in the House. That means, that even in ‘wave’ elections including 1994, the party bearing the majority of the losses has managed to pick off at least one incumbent or one open seat from the other side.”
‘In the last 50 years, no party has been completely shutout in the takeover columns in the House.’
Here’s Gonzales’ analysis of the weak points in the Democratic Party’s armor in the midterms:
1. Ohio 6 (Open). Democrats hit a severe bump in the road when state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) failed to garner the 50 valid signatures necessary to qualify for the primary ballot. Now, Wilson is running an expensive write-in campaign in the May 2 primary. State Rep. Chuck Blasdel is the likely GOP nominee, but he is still recovering from a hit he took for owing back-taxes. If Wilson doesn’t get the nomination, Republican prospects improve dramatically. If he is the nominee, it’s a very competitive race.
2. West Virginia 1 (Alan Mollohan). Cong. Mollohan is under pressure from Republicans and now the editorial boards of the New York Times and Washington Post to step down from his role as ranking member of the House Ethics Committee. [Note: Mollohan did step down from the committee on Friday.] Under scrutiny is the dramatic increase in his personal wealth over the last four years and money he directed to a handful of non-profit companies he helped set up, back in the state. State Delegate Chris Wakim (R), a West Point graduate and Gulf War veteran, showed $118,463 in the bank on March 31 and could take advantage if Mollohan’s political situation becomes more dire.
3. Georgia 8 (Jim Marshall). Former Cong. Mac Collins (R) is running a rejuvenated campaign against Democrat Jim Marshall in a redrawn district. Marshall had over $1 million on hand through the first quarter of the year compared to almost $700,000 for Collins. President Bush carried the 8th District in both 2000 (58%) and 2004 (61%).
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