Outta here: The latest round of Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive statewide polls shows an interesting political terrain for both Democrat and Republican incumbents and challengers.
California: Terminator Terminated
California voters are seriously dissatisfied with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Fewer than one in three (30 percent) approve of his job performance in Sacramento, and just one-third (34 percent) think he deserves re-election. Matched up against potential Democratic opponents, the Gubernator does better than previous poll numbers had suggested, but he still trails both potential opponents. State Treasurer Phil Angelides leads Schwarzenegger by five (46 percent to 41 percent) and state Comptroller Steve Westly holds a nine-point advantage over the incumbent, 47 percent to 38 percent.
Pennsylvania: Santorum Toast
For Sen. Rick Santorum, considered the most vulnerable incumbent in the nation, election night is shaping up to be a big disappointment. But the race is far from over, with a nasty battle brewing within Democratic ranks over Democrat Bob Casey Jr.’s support for the pro-life position on abortion. The state Treasurer, Casey is beating Santorum by eight points, 47 percent to 39 percent. Just 40 percent give Santorum a positive job approval rating, and fewer (38 percent) think he deserves to be re-elected.
The fight for the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion continues to be close. But incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell, former Philadelphia mayor and Democratic National Committee chairman, may be opening up a lead over former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Lynn Swann. However, as an African American Republican with high name recognition, Swann will be able to attract national Republican resources for his race.
Illinois: Democratic Stronghold
In spite of a mere 33 percent job approval, incumbent Gov. Ron Blagojevich still holds a six-point lead (43 percent to 37 percent) over the GOP nominee, Judy Baar Topinka. However, Topinka, the Illinois state treasurer, receives more positive approval ratings (44 percent) than give Blagojevitch positive marks (42 percent).
Illinois voters remain strongly Democratic, the survey shows, reflecting the same political make-up that gave John Kerry a victory there in the 2004 election. Just 37 percent give President Bush positive marks for his work on the job, and Democrats enjoy a 50 percent to 36 percent lead when Illinois voters say which party’s congressional candidate they intend to vote for in November.
Florida: Still Red
The governor’s race is looking very close, with Republicans holding only a slight margin, despite outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush’s job approval rating of 54 percent. Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist currently is the marginal front runner. He tops both Democrats — Congressman Jim Davis by two points (42 percent-40 percent) and State Sen. Rod Smith by five points (43 percent-38 percent). Democrat Davis tops the other Republican candidate, state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, by three points (41 percent-38 percent), but Gallagher is in a dead heat with Smith at 38 percent each.
Despite President Bush having just 42 percent of voting Floridians approving of his performance, the state remains closely divided. Democrats have a slight edge (44 percent-40 percent) in the generic Congressional ballot, but most Florida voters think Republicans better represent their conservative principles.
Florida is really like five different states.
Once anyone in the state knows who these candidates are, things will change. Christ is pretty weak, I doubt he can win. Rod Smith is very appealing and once people are reminded that he prosecuted Danny Rolling in the Gainesville murders, he’ll have a good shot. Hope that happens before the primary.
There was another California poll out this week in which the “name recognition” numbers offered bleak portends for Arnold. His name recognition registered at over 90 percent (which I think is low), while neither of the Dems, Steve Westly and Phil Angelides, both of whom hold statewide office, registered much above the 30 percent range. Nonetheless, both Dems were roughly even with Arnold. (They’re obviously doing much better in the poll you cite.)
Arnold’s numbers are floating up, in part, because the California Chamber of Commerce already has a pro-Arnold campaign ad up that is notable for its sickly sweet production values and, most importantly, because while Arnold is shown looking heavenward, he never speaks. The Chamber had to scrape bottom to come up with accomplishments to tout: “He eliminated the car tax” (three years ago, and thereby added billions more to the deficit) and he “resisted raising your taxes.” That’s it? That’s all you got?? Wow.
The numbers also showed that something like 60 percent of Cal Dems are undecided between Westly and Angelides — and this would include yours truly. Leaning toward Westly but Angelides has the party endorsement including that of both senators, Boxer and Feinstein.
A box of hammers would be a better governor than Arnold so either of the Dems look great to voters hereabouts.
Station Agent, you’re right about Florida’s multiple personality disorder but I disagree about your picks for gov. I think the candidates will be Crist and Davis, but then those are my choices, so it could be wishful thinking. Buck, what’s with the line, “but most Florida voters think Republicans better represent their conservative principles”? I’m not doubting you, but I’d be interested in the numbers on that.