For the first time since December Public Policy Polling finds Democrats leading on the generic Congressional ballot by a slim margin of 43-41. The shift appears due to the fact that the party is becoming more unified. Democratic voters are planning to support their candidates by a 76-point margin, 84-8. That represents an 11-point increase since March.
Since the March survey, when the GOP had a 46-43 generic ballot advantage, independents have started to swing away from the GOP. They still lean Republican by a 36-21 margin, but the previous gap was 44-26. More important, 43 percent of independents are now in the undecided column compared to 30 percent during the winter. Those voters are back up for grabs for Democrats to win.
The approval numbers of Congressional Democrats, though abysmal, are seeing some improvement: 35 percent of voters think they’re doing a good job with 54 percent disapproving. In March it was a 31-56. The big movement, like on the generic ballot, has come with the party’s own members. They give their leaders in Washington a 68/19 approval now where it was 57/27 before.
Congressional Republicans remain unpopular, with only 20 percent of voters approving of them to 62 percent disapproving. Only 11 percent of independents think they’re doing a good job versus 66 percent who believe they aren’t.
While 2010 is still going to be a very tough year, things are looking better than they did six months ago for the Democrats.
