Day: November 10, 2016

Irish Bookmaker Is Another Trump Victory Victim

Buck Banks

Féilim Mac An Iomaire
Féilim Mac An Iomaire
D’OH! – Paddy Power Pay Out Over $4.5 Million to Trump Backers Three Weeks After Paying Out On Hillary Clinton Early

Press Release: (9 November 2016) Paddy Power, the bookmaker who paid out over $1 million early to its customers who backed Hillary Clinton, were left counting the cost of their decision today after Donald Trump upset the odds to win the U.S. presidential election.

The result also stung Paddy Power for its biggest political payout ever with the bookie being hit for over $4.5 million by customers who backed Trump.

After Donald Trump was hit with scandal after scandal the bookie was confident of Hillary’s chances — prompting the whopping payout. But Clinton’s campaign took a late hit thanks to the reopened FBI investigation which resulted in a huge surge in bets for The Donald.

[…]

Victory Was Just 2 Percent Away

Buck Banks

2%

Nate Silver: “What would have happened if just 1 out of every 100 voters shifted from Trump to Clinton? That would have produced a net shift of 2 percentage points in Clinton’s direction. … Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida flip back to Clinton, giving her a total of 307 electoral votes. And she’d have won the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points, right where the final national polls had the race and in line with Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.”

Republicans Didn’t Win a Mandate

Buck Banks

Last night, Paul Ryan, jubilant with the prospect that his long dream of dismantling the state may be finally at hand, called the election ‘a repudiation of the status quo of failed liberal progressive policies.’ This morning, going further, he insisted Trump ‘just earned a mandate.’ The rule of law entitles Ryan and his party to exercise the power they have won. But Ryan is seeking something more — the deference of a party that is seen as embodying the will of the people. He is not entitled to that. … Trump’s election cannot be called a decision by the voters to repudiate the liberal status quo because, for one thing, it was not a decision by the voters at all. The voters supported Clinton over Trump. The decision was made by the Electoral College, which as a matter of opinion can be called archaic, and as a matter of objective fact can be called anti-democratic. Again, the rules are the rules. But it remains the case that Ryan and his party have power not because of the will of the voters but despite it.

— Jonathan Chait

Enthusiasm Beats Analytics

Buck Banks

Clinton had a sophisticated analytics shop. Yet, as I watched this election unfold I was reminded of a statement by GOP pollster Glen Bolger in 2014, he said you can’t win on turnout if you are losing on message. Exit polls showed that the number one candidate quality that mattered most to voters was ‘Can bring change’ at 39 percent. Trump won those voters with 83 percent. Enthusiasm beats analytics every time.

— Amy Walter