If you were one of the Democrats out there hoping Trump would be the Republican candidate because Hillary can easily beat him…let’s just say that now that we are almost here it’s not looking good.
I say “almost here” because as we know, Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to stay in the Democratic primary. More on that in a minute.
Here’s why things are looking bad for Clinton, and what we need to remember to turn it around.
RECENT POLLS
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton and Trump statistically tied in three states: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
Those are big states. They have lots of voters. But even worse, here’s this little tidbit:
The Quinnipiac Swing State Poll says it “focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
Clinton is up by one lousy point in Florida and Pennsylvania. Trump is up by four points in Ohio.
But wait, it gets worse.
THE PRESS
Vox’s David Roberts, who usually covers the environment and energy, wrote a column on how the coming general election will likely play out that needs to be shouted from the rooftops. Roberts says the press’s reflexive “balanced” approach, in which equal respect is paid to, for example, climate scientists and climate change deniers, will work against Hillary.
The column is titled, “Why the media will lift Trump up and tear Clinton down” and in it, Roberts argues that the moment of clarity, in which it was accepted that Trump is incapable of handling the presidency and Clinton was grudgingly acknowledged as obviously qualified, has already passed.
…the US political ecosystem — media, consultants, power brokers, think tanks, foundations, officeholders, the whole thick network of institutions and individuals involved in national politics — cannot deal with a presidential election in which one candidate is obviously and uncontroversially the superior (if not sole acceptable) choice…
Among all these classes of professionals, all these institutions, that whole superstructure of US politics built around two balanced sides, there will be a tidal pull to normalize this election, to make it Coca-Cola versus Pepsi instead of Coca-Cola versus sewer water.
Roberts adds that ratings, revenue, and reputation demand this fiction.
The campaign press requires, for its ongoing health and advertising revenue, a real race. It needs controversies. “Donald Trump is not fit to be president” may be the accurate answer to pretty much every relevant question about the race, but it’s not an interesting answer. It’s too final, too settled. No one wants to click on it.
But Roberts says the media won’t stop with simply treating Trump with more respect than he could ever deserve. To be truly fair and balanced, the press will have to follow the breadcrumbs Trumps throws over his shoulder until they bump into Hillary.
Going after Clinton will be journalists’ default strategy for proving that they’re not biased. They will need opportunities to be “tough” toward Clinton, or at least to engage in the kind of performative toughness valued in campaign journalism, to demonstrate their continued independence.
Trump will give them opportunities.
And so it came to pass. MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell recently conducted a ridiculous interview with Hillary surrogate Cecile Richards, the CEO of Planned Parenthood. In it, she asked Richards if it isn’t true that Hillary was an “enabler,” the phrase planted by Trump. Mitchell seemed palpably uncomfortable as she mouthed the word.
“Isn’t it possible that some women — perhaps younger women, perhaps others — might not respect Hillary Clinton for the way she stood by Bill Clinton?” the MSNBC host suggested. “And according to Donald Trump’s analysis, you know, enabled [Bill Clinton] — whatever that means.”
Richards didn’t blink in assuring Mitchell that no women anywhere consider this their top election concern, and that Bill Clinton isn’t on the ballot this time.
If only that would be the end of it. But we’re just getting started.
LIKEABILITY & PASSION
As former Obama campaign manager David Ploufe explained in a recent interview with former Obama strategist David Axelrod, Clinton so far lacks a crucial element to win: passion among her supporters. And as I have said many times, simply hating the other side’s candidate doesn’t translate into election victory. That’s because it never makes up for not loving whoever is on our side. Ploufe:
We [the 2008 Obama campaign] had passion…and that’s really where the magic came in. Often people will say, everybody should do what you guys did. Well you can’t if you don’t have passion. And I think that’s going to be Hillary Clinton’s biggest challenge, is can she create the passion on the ground, both to get the turnout but the organization to bring people out?
But, Axlerod asked, what if young people and women and others really hate Trump? Won’t that be enough? Ploufe:
I do think it’ll help a lot, but it’s just one side of a coin. So yeah, there’s the stakes and the threat and the opposition but then the other side is the passion for HER. You’ve gotta have both, I think…In a close race, you need both. You need people to be passionate about the stakes and about defeating your opponent, but they have to be passionate FOR you.
BERNIE SANDERS
And finally, there’s Bernie. He’s still in, forcing Clinton to waste time and money she could be using against Trump. Trump, meanwhile, has the travel lane open and clear, and nothing to do but attack Hillary between now and November.
WHAT WE HAVE TO DO TO WIN
There’s still only one way to win an election, and it’s to get out the vote in greater numbers than your opponent.
There are almost as many false stories about Clinton now as there have been about Obama since he first went on the ballot in 2008. We have to correct the record.
When the press sets up false equivalency scenarios and repeats Trump’s trash talk, we have to call them out in the same masterful way that Cecile Richards called out Andrea Mitchell.
Hillary Clinton has led an amazing life, and I don’t know how repairing your marriage, after the relationship weathered one of the most difficult challenges there is, has been cast as a negative. If she were a Republican, the same scenario would be held up as proof of character, loyalty, and adherence to family values.
There’s so much on the line this time.
Our side has to hold our heads high and support Clinton sincerely — and passionately.
