Month: November 2008

Omens, Portents, and Trying to Take Deep Breaths

Trish

It isn’t just because someone kicked the crap out of my Obama yard sign while I was out on Halloween night. It’s not only because the Obama campaign announced that 20 months of blood, sweat, and tears on their part would end…in Jacksonville (could there be a worse bad omen?). It’s not even the poll in my local paper on Thursday that showed McCain beating Obama here by 63 percent to Obama’s 31.

I think the reason there’s a lead weight in my stomach, and the bellies of other Democrats in my town, is all the McCain/Palin signs and bumper stickers. They’ve been sprouting like mushrooms after a spring rain, in direct proportion to Obama’s poll gains. And even though I know many of them are bogus — like the one that says, “Another Democrat for McCain” placed in front of the Republican campaign headquarters — each one makes me feel like someone moved a dark cloud over my head and held it there.

There’s a lead weight in my stomach. McCain/Palin signs and bumper stickers have been sprouting like mushrooms after a spring rain, in direct proportion to Obama’s poll gains

I’m worried, worried mainly that we are in for an unpleasant surprise on Tuesday night. All the polls show Obama with a comfortable lead over McCain (except the ones taken in Northeast Florida of course). But the problem with all the polls is their weighting systems. In case you don’t usually follow these things, the way it works is that more Democrats than Republicans are asked who they’re voting for. Pollsters are doing this, they say, because there are more registered and/or likely Democratic voters. Let Rasmussen explain it:

As we have noted many times, there is a disagreement within the polling industry as to whether or not polling firms should “weight” or adjust their sample to reflect a specific mix of Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters.

Rasmussen Reports does weight our sample to a set of partisan targets and bases those targets on surveys conducted in preceding months. Entering the month of June, our targets for the month were set so that the sample would include 9.44% more Democrats than Republicans.

Did you catch that last part? Nearly 10 percent more Democrats were asked if they were voting for Obama or McCain than were Republicans. And most polls — with weighting — give Obama only a five-point lead right now.

And yes, I understand that almost all the undecideds would have to make their minds up for McCain for him to have a chance but…I think he has that chance. Again, you’re talking to someone who lives in a place where some people still have their “W ’04” bumper stickers proudly in place.

Please folks, if you support Obama, let nothing stand in your way on Tuesday to keep you from casting your vote. Do not for one second think he’ll be O.K. without you. He won’t.

Is it Wednesday yet?

Half the Seats Were Empty at Schwarzenegger Rally for McCain in Ohio

Jon Ponder

It’s been lost in all the coverage of the presidential campaign, but Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s approval rating in California has plummeted again. In the most recent poll, taken in September, only 38 percent of Californians had a favorable opinion of the governor.

This puts Schwarzenegger’s unpopularity within range of the 35 percent approval rating he received in 2006. He won reelection the next year by swinging wildly to the left, and by filling his campaign with Democrats — as well as at least one Bush-Rove operative, Steve Schmidt, who has become infamous this year as the mastermind of John McCain’s campaign.

Speaking of which, it appears that Schwarzenegger’s movie star appeal outside California has lost its luster, too. On Thursday, he appeared with John McCain at a campaign event in Columbus, Ohio, and even with the combined billing of California’s movie star governor and the putative next leader of the free world, the venue was only filled to half its capacity:

[The appearance of McCain and Schwarzenegger] at Nationwide Arena drew what was a large crowd for McCain, but about half the arena was empty. Four years ago when Schwarzenegger campaigned in the same venue for Bush, the arena was packed to capacity with about 20,000 people.

One trait Schwarzenegger shares with George Bush is a sense of humor that relies heavily on locker-room towel-snapping:

Schwarzenegger long has sponsored an annual bodybuilding competition in Columbus, and he joked that he hoped to invite Obama next time because “he needs to do something with those skinny legs.”

“We’re going to make him do some squats, and then we’re going to give him some biceps curls to beef up those scrawny little arms. But if you only could do something about putting some meat on his ideas,” Schwarzenegger said.

Har-har.

McCain and Schwarzenegger won’t be campaigning together in California, because the last three statewide polls show McCain losing to Barack Obama by jaw-droppingly large margins — 27, 23 and 22 percentage points.

There has been some good news lately for Schwarzenegger in California, however. The prison guard’s union — reputedly the most powerful union in the state, which, if so, is an ugly sign of the times — has dropped its effort to recall the governor next year. Last month, the language for the recall petition they submitted was rejected by the secretary of state, a Democrat, because of technical issues. The union decided not to refile the petition language, but rather to let Schwarzenegger twist in the wind until he is term-limited out of office in 2010.

Polls: Another California Poll Shows McCain over 20 Points Behind

Jon Ponder

On Wednesday, we reported that John McCain was behind Barack Obama in California by 27 points in the Rasmussen poll and by 23 points in the PPIC survey. On Thursday, the highly respected Field Poll added confirmation that there will be a landslide for Obama in the Golden State on Tuesday:

THE POLL: The Field Poll on the presidential race among likely votes in California (55 electoral votes).

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama, 55 percent; John McCain, 33 percent.

Of INTEREST: If the poll accurately reflects the outcome on Election Day, it would be the most lopsided presidential election in California since Democrat Franklin Roosevelt beat Republican Alfred Landon by 35 percentage points in 1936.

Of course, the only thing that could stop the landslide now is if Democrats, particularly younger ones, assume their vote won’t matter and “flake” on Election Day.

On the other hand, opposition to Proposition 8, the ballot measure that would end gay marriage, would benefit if Republicans are so dispirited that they decide not to vote. Polls show the measure losing by a close margin of 49 percent to 44 percent, with 7 percent undecided.