Poll on Bush’s Speech Is Even Worse Than It Appears

The 323 adults interviewed were 50% Republican, 23% Democratic and 27% independent.

Poll results are in on President Bush’s speech last night and they are underwhelming, at best. According to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, an unimpressive but seemingly sturdy 46 percent said they had a “very positive” reaction to the speech.

That number starts to look a wee bit wobbly when you look at the poll’s demographics, however.

The poll was taken immediately after the speech, and the 323 adults interviewed were 50 percent Republican, 23 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent. The margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Why are the poll’s demographics tilted so lopsidedly toward the GOP? On CNN, Bill Schneider explained that since Republicans were twice as likely to tune in to hear Dear Leader speechify than Democrats or independents, the cross section represents a true sample of the audience.

Democrats and independents voted with their feet but their “unfavorable” response was simply factored out.

If the sample included all voters, the “very positve” would shrink to half or less. That is seriously bad, especially compared with the 67 percent “very positive” reaction to the “mission accomplished” speech in May 2003.


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