Tag: Special Election 2005

The Big No: After having focused on the contents of the propositions on the ballot for next Tuesday’s special election over the past two weeks or so, California voters have decided to reject them all. The four that have been heavily promoted by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger are all trailing significantly. Now, three related to health issues and one related to energy regulation are also failing, according to the latest Field Poll:

Tuesday’s results show that proposals to limit abortion rights and provide discount drugs for low-income Californians are fading.

Monday’s results showed the same for a slate of proposals backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarz­en­egger and one that would re-regulate California’s electricity market.

Fifteen years ago, California voters were faced with a similar slew of ballot initiatives and voted against most of them in what came to be called “The Big No.” Poll results from both the Field Research Corp. and the Public Policy Institute of California suggest that next week could be a repeat.

Specifically, here’s how the iniatiives appear to be viewed by voters:

[…]

C.A. – P.O.’d: The latest poll from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California looks at the status of five of the eight propositions on the ballot in the November 8 special election. It also rates the job approvals of top officials.

The governor’s measures to restrict state spending (Proposition 76) and redraw legislative boundaries (Proposition 77) both appear to be tanking.

The other two props sponsored by Schwarzenegger – Prop 74, which would increase probation time for teachers; and Prop 75, which would restrict the way public employee unions use members’ dues for political purposes – are both in a dead heat.Bad news is, Proposition 75 was up 25 points over today in the same poll two months ago.

The abortion notification initiative (which Schwarzenegger did not sponsor and has been mum about) is marginal but could fail.

The special election itself continues to be unpopular. Most voters (54 percent) still think it is a bad idea. And, matching national trends, the ratio of Democrats who are against holding the election (76 percent) is roughly equal to the percentage of Republicans who are for it (70 percent). The overall numbers on this question are unchanged from last month.

The governor’s approval rate among voters is a pathetic 33 percent, with 58 percent of us disapproving.

Even President Bush is more popular in California than Schwarzenegger – 36 percent approve, and 60 percent disapprove, of the job the president is doing.

Hey, it always worked before: Tom DeLay, the master of Texas redistricting, is pursuing the same winning strategy in his trial on charges of conspiracy and money laundering.

There’s a lot to be said for stacking the deck, after all. Here in Florida, Republican-controlled redistricting has turned the state from a lovely shade of indigo to a solid 186 red. And although Florida continues to have more registered Democratic voters, that majority goes largely unrepresented in state and local politics.

If redistricting weren’t so effective, Arnold Schwarzenegger wouldn’t be spending wads of money to put it in the hands of trusted GOP flunkies. If he is successful, we can all watch this country’s biggest Democratic bastion turn into Repug Central, with absolutely no shift by the electorate whatsoever.

Tom DeLay knows all this, and just as he has always picked his own voters instead of voters picking him, he is now attempting to select his own judge and jury. Houston Chronicle:

• DeLay’s lawyer, Dick DeGuerin, avoided media coverage of DeLay’s arrest by switching his surrender from Fort Bend County to Harris County. Reporters and photographers had staked out the Fort Bend County Jail since Wednesday.

• DeGuerin asked state District Judge Bob Perkins of Austin to remove himself from hearing the case because he has donated money to Democratic organizations and MoveOn.Org, a group that has raised money in the past year by attacking DeLay politically.

[District Attorney Ronnie] Earle said he would oppose the motion because it would mean judges could try only criminal defendants of their own political party.

• DeLay’s defense team also asked to have his trial moved out of highly Democratic Travis County. They cited news coverage of Earle’s investigation.

They also noted that DeLay orchestrated the congressional redistricting that divided Travis County into three districts, angering many Democrats.

DeLay’s red-eyed but smiling mug shot says it all: he’s running for Innocent (R-Texas). But courts aren’t political districts – yet – and the day hasn’t come when politicians can campaign their way out of felonies.

Focus groups don’t like him: We haven’t seen polling on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s upcoming special election recently but there was a clear sign on Friday that things aren’t going well for Das Guber: The governor’s “Yes on Whatever” campaign pulled all ads out of rotation in which Schwarzenegger appears on camera, replacing them with ads featuring actors playing “ordinary” Californians. (Why these regular – Republican? – Californians come off so snarky is a question for another day.)

The governor’s flying monkeys insist the change has nothing to do with anything:

[Schwarzenegger spokesman Todd] Harris said the campaign was not pulling the ads because of public opinion about Schwarzenegger. Rather, he said, the campaign spent a lot of effort and money on TV ads featuring the governor, “and now we are putting a ton of [ads] behind educating people about the campaign.”

Meanwhile, in reality:

“[Pulling the ads] means their focus groups and polling are telling them that he is not a compelling source on these topics, and that is linked to his popularity ratings,” said Barbara O’Connor, a political communications professor at Cal State Sacramento.

In the poll that really matters – fundraising – the unions and liberal-leaning groups opposing the governor have raised about $90 million, while Schwarzenegger says he has only raised about $40 million.

The cost of holding the election is about $50 million, so whatever happens on Nov. 8, this is an obscene amount of money to be wasted on an election that at its bottom line is totally unnecessary.

Mercury News:

With most of his policy agenda getting a cold shoulder in public opinion polls, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger invited Sen. John McCain, a national symbol of political reform, to campaign for him in California on Monday.

The Arizona Republican, who is considered likely to run for president in 2008, endorsed the four main ballot measures the governor is promoting, although McCain later said he was “not as clear” on one of them “as I should be,” referring to Proposition 76, which would impose spending limits and give the governor new power to cut the budget.

McCain held a press conference with the governor in Burbank, then flew to Oakland to participate in a campaign event with a screened audience of mostly Republican women from the East Bay. McCain said the governor was brave for calling the special election, which has antagonized the state’s public employee unions.

“He’s got principle, he’s got determination and he’s got guts to take on the special interests,” McCain said in Oakland…

McCain said he endorsed Proposition 74, which would lengthen the time it takes teachers to get tenure, because the current two years is too short. He said he supported Proposition 75, which would force public unions to get written permission from their members before using their dues for political purposes, because it’s fair. He said he also supports a similar measure for corporate shareholders.

McCain also supported Proposition 77, which would take away the Legislature’s power to draw their own districts and give that power to judges.

The campaign against Proposition 77 now has additional $4 million in its war chest, according to the Los Angeles Times. The donation came from movie producer and real estate heir Stephen Bing, and will be used to fight the ballot measure that would take control of redistricting in California from the state legislature and place it in the hands of a committee.

Supporters of the measure, including several wealthy Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, have raised about $5 million. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is backing the measure and is expected to spend heavily to promote it.

With the rather glaring exception of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and a few hardcore rightwingers, nobody in California wants to have another statewide election this year. Just since 2003, we’ve had the gubernatorial recall primaries, the recall election, the presidential primaries, the presidential election, plus all municipalities have had primaries and most have had run-offs.

And now we have to do it again in November – and it’s going to cost us an additional $50 million, to boot.

What started out earlier this year as ambivalence is quickly turning into antipathy both toward the special election and the man who called it.

In the new Field Poll, 57 percent of voters say they want the governor to call the election off.

Disapproval of the governor’s performance is at 52 percent – a flip from the 65 percent who approved of his performance in August 2004.

One political expert said, “Usually when you have large declines in a job performance rating of an elected official, it’s in relation to some external force. … It could be the economy; with Gray Davis it was the electricity crisis … but this is of his own making.”