Tag: Election 2016

Koch Brothers to Spend Like a Political Party on 2016

Buck Banks

$889 million

Amount the Koch brothers’ political operation intends to spend in the run-up to the 2016 elections, Politico reports. “The spending goal, shared with donors at a Monday morning session at the Rancho Mirage Ritz Carlton, reflects the sweeping ambition of a private conservative political network that in many ways has eclipsed the power of the official Republican Party. The $889 million spending goal dwarfs the $404 million the Republican National Committee spent during the 2012 election and the $188 million it dropped during last year’s midterm campaign.”

Chait: Romney Will Come to His Senses

Buck Banks

Eight years ago, John Kerry briefly considered another run for president, after also having failed to oust an incumbent despised by his own party’s base and mistaking the outpouring of commitment on his behalf as an expression of personal loyalty, rather than the partisan loyalty it actually was. Soon enough, Kerry came to his senses. Romney will, too.

— Jonathan Chait, in New York Magazine.

A Romney Run Would ‘Upend the Race’

Buck Banks

It would upend the race. He leads in national GOP polls, but more importantly, Romney would start as the favorite in New Hampshire. The winner of the New Hampshire primary on the Republican side has gone on to the be the party’s nominee in nine of the last 11 presidential elections. Notably, that includes all of the last three cycles. Romney would also threaten former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and move New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie down a notch for the establishment track, setting up the potential for a protracted nomination fight between a couple of establishment candidates, the most viable harder-line conservative and possibly Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). Of course, Romney came within 34 caucus votes of winning Iowa. And if conservatives split like they did last time, a Romney Iowa and New Hampshire sweep is possible.

— Morning Line.

The Odds Are Really Long that Hillary Clinton Will Win in 2016

Buck Banks

When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But, in my mind, the most important data point to follow is the one which measures Americans’ desire to stay the current course or try a different one in 2016. … History tells us that the odds of a Clinton presidency are long. In the modern era (well, really since Andrew Jackson in 1836), no Democrat has succeeded a 2-term Democratic president.

— Amy Walter, writing for the Cook Political Report.

Let’s Restart the Cycle of Hope and Disappointment

Buck Banks

At election time, candidates seduce us with promises to bring America together, but inevitably fall short and end up leaving office with the country more polarized than when they arrived. After blaming them for their failure to unite us, we turn to the next crop of presidential aspirants and the cycle of hope and disappointment begins all over again.

— Brendan Nyhan, writing for the New York Times’ The Upshot blog.