Pollster John Zogby’s new Electoral College analysis gives Barack Obama 273 EC votes to John McCain’s 146. Zogby says 119 votes are too close to call at this point in the election cycle.
Here are the latest changes and Zogby’s analysis on the Zogby Electoral College map:
Arkansas changes from purple to red: “It may look like a toss-up, but the conservative base is probably too solid for Obama to crack.”
Arizona changes from purple to red: “The state may be changing, but it is still home turf for McCain. Look for conservatives to come back to McCain.”
Florida changes from red to purple: “Seniors and whites provide McCain a cushion over Obama. However, no one should count votes here too soon.”
South Dakota changes from red to purple: “A tough call here, so we’ll shade it purple for now.”
Rasmussen isn’t as generous: “The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.”
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com