Most GOP Insiders Don’t Expect Trump to Win the Nomination

85%

Of Republican insiders say Donald Trump “isn’t on a glide path to become the party’s nominee, despite a 22-point win in the New Hampshire primary this week,” Politico reports. “Their rationale is partly about math – Trump has a solid plurality of the vote in many states, but polls suggest he is too polarizing to win over a majority of Republicans – and partly grounded in the belief that the brash, sometimes-profane real-estate mogul will wilt once the other candidates turn their fire on him.”

Clinton Has Little Traction with Youth Vote

It is fair to wonder about Clinton’s ability to put the party back together if she does become the nominee. Getting youth turnout is always tricky for Democrats, and Clinton is getting absolutely annihilated with young voters: She lost the youngest group of voters (17-29 in Iowa and 18-29 in New Hampshire) 84%-14% and 83%-16%, respectively. Now, we know that Barack Obama put the party back together fairly easily in 2008, and that if Clinton is the nominee she will be able to use her Republican opponent as a motivational tool. But these are staggeringly lousy numbers for Clinton nonetheless.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Trump Finally Repulses Conservatives – His Vulgar Language Shocks S.C. Focus Group

Trump dropping the F-bomb in New Hampshire
Trump dropping the F-bomb in New Hampshire

Donald Trump’s rise during the 2016 presidential campaign has confounded experts from the start. No one could have predicted that a buffoonish billionaire from the Outer Boroughs would have broad appeal to conservative voters nationwide.

But now, for the first time, something the GOP frontrunner said appears to have shocked Republican voters.

He said the word “fuck.”

[…]

Ignoring Trump’s True Danger

It is undeniably enjoyable to watch Trump. He’s red-faced, discursive, funny, angry, strange, unpredictable, and real. He speaks without filter and tweets with reckless abandon. The Donald Trump phenomenon is a riotous union of candidate ego and voter id. America’s most skilled political entertainer is putting on the greatest show we’ve ever seen. It’s so fun to watch that it’s easy to lose sight of how terrifying it really is. … Trump is the most dangerous major candidate for president in memory. He pairs terrible ideas with an alarming temperament; he’s a racist, a sexist, and a demagogue, but he’s also a narcissist, a bully, and a dilettante. He lies so constantly and so fluently that it’s hard to know if he even realizes he’s lying. He delights in schoolyard taunts and luxuriates in backlash.

— Ezra Klein in Vox