GOP’s Chances of Taking Senate Shrinking

52%

Republicans’ chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate — down from an 86% chance in July, according to the Washington Post’s forecasting model. “It’s not that races have narrowed, but that the model has begun weighting information differently — mainly by (a) incorporating polling data (where possible) after the relevant primaries, and by (b) increasing the weight that polls have in the forecast. What this suggests is that in several states, Democrats are arguably ‘out-performing’ the fundamentals.”