It’s Been a Tough Year for Pundits

Has there ever been a worse year for the conventional wisdom in handicapping a presidential primary race? Sure, the pundit pack has been grotesquely wrong before, from over-hyping Hillary Clinton’s chances in 2008 to smugly dismissing Howard Dean’s potential to galvanize anti-war Democrats in 2004. But never have the political railbirds so frequently compounded their errors as they reeled from one smug, but erroneous, prediction to another. The list of miscues by the columnists and TV talking heads is only rivaled by Dick Cheney’s record of intelligence estimates.

— Walter Shapiro, writing in the New Republic.