Suddenly, however, Whitman’s investment is looking like it might not pay off.
Internal polling by both campaigns shows that Whitman’s 40 point lead over Poizner just a few weeks ago has now been whittled down to about 10 points:
In a memo distributed to reporters last week, Poizner pollster Neil Newhouse released data that put Whitman ahead of Poizner by 38 percent to 28 percent, a far cry from the edge of 59 percent to 11 percent she held done in February. (The Fix is aware of at least two other private polls that show the race that close or closer.)
“Meg Whitman has been steadily losing voters and doing so at an accelerated rate as GOP voters increasingly begin to focus on this race,” Newhouse wrote.
The Whitman forces acknowledge slippage but insist all is well. “What we’ve seen is [Poizner’s] money spent in trying to drive Meg’s negatives has had a leveling effect on the race,” said Whitman consultant Rob Stutzman.
What gives? How can a candidate who has already lent her campaign $59 million and hired the best consulting team money can buy find herself in a dogfight with three weeks to go?
In conversations with close observers of California politics, a few reasons for Whitman’s struggles stand out.
First, the state has a history of wariness toward free-spending business people running for office. From Michael Huffington [Republican] to Al Checchi to Steve Westly [both Democrats], candidates whose money stands at the center of their campaigns have been rejected. (Poizner is something of a flawed messenger on this issue, having already donated $19 million of his own money to his bid.)
Second, Whitman has allowed herself to be defined as the insider in a year when being the outsider represents the political high ground. With former governor Pete Wilson serving as her campaign chairman and endorsements from national political figures such as Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Whitman has turned into the de facto incumbent. Poizner has sought to drive that point home to voters with an ad in which Whitman morphs into Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) — a decidedly unpopular figure among Republican voters.
Third, Whitman’s adversarial relationship with the press — she has had several high-profile run-ins with the media in the state, and her campaign has been accused by Poizner of hiding her from reporters — has contributed to a sense of entitlement and aloofness that voters find unattractive.
By today’s extreme right-wing, tea-bagger standards, Whitman and Poizner are also both flaming liberal Republicans, and everybody knows it. So it’s queasy-making to watch them duking it out over who’s the meanest, most immigrant-hating, fiscally ruthless conservative, knowing that the winner on June 8 will have to pivot 180 degrees on June 9 and morph into the sort of sunny, optimistic and inclusive candidate liberal and moderate Californians prefer these days.
