Day: September 12, 2006

Don’t Trust Political Analysts Under 40

Buck Banks

Kids are all wrong: National Journal’s Charlie Cook thinks he’s on to something in the analysis of the upcoming midterm elections — younger political analysts take a much more conservative view of how many House and Senate seats the GOP stands to lose in November. He says it’s because the older guys have seen many more election cycles as well as more eeker and squeaker races. It’s an interesting notion:

One aspect of this election cycle that has fascinated me for months is the generation gap that has developed among experienced political operatives and professional election analysts.

Observers over age 40 think that the GOP could well lose more than 20 House seats and more than five Senate seats.

As a general rule, election-watchers under the age of 40, regardless of their party or ideology, see the contest for control of the House as fairly close. They foresee Republicans’ losing at least 10 seats, but certainly no more than 20, and they put the odds of a Democratic takeover at 50-50, give or take 10 percentage points.

As for the Senate, these observers tend to expect Republicans to lose three or four seats, but probably not five and certainly not the six required for Democrats to take charge.

Observers over age 40, meanwhile, tend to see a greater likelihood of sizable Republican losses. They think that the GOP could well lose more than 20 House seats and more than five Senate seats.

Most of the professionals toiling in the vineyards of the party campaign committees and watching individual races most closely are in the under-40 cohort. They tend to see control of the House as a close call and tend to be most conservative on their House seat counts. They’re also the least likely to think the Senate will change hands.
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Gay Israelis Demand Pride March

Buck Banks

Gay holy days: The Israeli Supreme Court is considering a case where a gay group is demanding a permit to hold its pride march on the eve of Rosh Hashanah, Sept. 23, according to the Jewish Telegraph Agency. Apparently, the recent dust-up in Lebanon led to cancellation of the originally scheduled parade.

Officials with Jerusalem Open House said they submitted the petition Monday in conjunction with the Association for Civil Rights in Israel after a proposed parade date was refused and police didn’t respond to requests for several alternate dates.

Police officials have said the initial proposed date in September was too close to the holidays.

“We are demanding that the police protect our freedom of speech and right of assembly, and not submit to violent threats,” said Noa Sattath, incoming executive director of Jerusalem Open House, a center for gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people that is trying to organize the march.

Organizers said they postponed the parade in August due to Israel’s war with Hezbollah and following police warnings that they might not be able to ensure safety at the march.

Quote du Jour

Buck Banks

People fight for luxuries, for power, or for ideas with just as much passion as they fight for money. Interests may be reconciled, but not philosophies. The desire for power is no less basic than the desire for wealth.

— Raymond Aron (1905-1983), French political philosopher, journalist

Pentagon Lowers Iraqi Civilian Death Count by Excluding People Killed by Bombs

Jon Ponder

The Vietnamization of U.S. involvement in Iraq’s religious civil war is now complete:

The U.S. military did not count people killed by bombs, mortars, rockets or other mass attacks when it reported a dramatic drop in the number of murders in the Baghdad area last month, the U.S. command said Monday.

The decision to include only victims of drive-by shootings and those killed by torture and execution, usually at the hands of death squads, allowed U.S. officials to argue that a security crackdown that began in the capital August 7 had more than halved the city’s murder rate.

But the types of slayings, including suicide bombings, that the U.S. excluded from the category of “murder” were not made explicit at the time. That led to confusion after Iraqi Health Ministry figures showed that 1,536 people died violently in and around Baghdad in August, nearly the same number as in July.

The figures raise serious questions about the success of the security operation launched by the U.S.-led coalition. When they released the murder rate figures, U.S. officials and their Iraqi counterparts were eager to show progress in restoring security in Baghdad at a time when Iraq appeared on the verge of civil war.