Month: August 2006

CT Sen: Returns Updated

Jon Ponder

It’s 8:12 Pacific, and Chris Bowers is calling the election for Lamont.

At 7:47 PDT:

80 percent reporting. Lamont 117K to 103K for Lieberman. That makes around a 6 percent spread. Getting even closer.

From earlier today, on Yahoo News:

But one thing is sure: the Fox News Channel is still campaigning for Lieberman. An Election Day report on the neoconservative cable channel featured an image of the neoconservative senator’s anti-war challenger in today’s contest for Connecticut’s Democratic Senate nomination, Ned Lamont, above the line: “HAVE THE DEMOCRATS FORGOTTEN THE LESSONS OF 9/11.”

The same report featured images of Lamont and Lieberman on a split screen with an image of an Israeli tank, all above the line: A LAMONT WIN, BAD NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY IN MIDEAST?”

Apparently, the network is delivering on Fox personality Sean Hannity’s pledge of support from earlier this year. “If you ever want me to do anything, for you and your re-election,” Hannity told the senator in February, adding that, “I think we ought to have Conservatives for Lieberman, a big fundraiser in Connecticut, and if I could ever do that, I’d make it the biggest blowout celebration ever.”

It’s 6:03 PDT and just saw that Lieberman apparently has lost in his home district:

# Direct word from the campaign: 6,500 vote margin for Lamont with 15% reporting. And Lieberman did lose his home precinct.
# Lamont 56%–Lieberman 44%. 7% reporting. The vote margin is around 2,700 votes. I just heard that Lieberman lost his own precinct. I can’t verify that.

First returns at 5:20 PDT are interesting but in no way indicative of how the evening will go:

Lamont 57 percent– Lieberman 43 percent. 1 percent reporting.

Cook: Midterms Look Like Cat 4-5 Hurricane for Dems

Buck Banks

Winds of change: National Journal columnist Charlie Cook says a slew of recent polls all point to a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives and a possible play for control of the Senate. His analysis leads him to predict that we could see another 1994, but in the Dems’ favor this time.

Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they’ll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50.

The electoral hurricane bearing down on the GOP looks likely to be a Category 4 or 5, strong enough to destroy at least one of the party’s majorities. The political climate feels much as it did before previous elections that produced sizable upheavals, such as in 1994, when Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats, and control of both chambers.

In the past two weeks, polling by CBS News/New York Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, and The Cook Political Report/RT Strategies found that just 27 to 28 percent of voters think the country is headed in the right direction. Between 60 and 66 percent say we are “on the wrong track.” These are the kinds of “time for a change” numbers associated with tidal-wave elections.

In those same three polls, approval ratings for Congress ranged from 25 to 28 percent, with disapproval ratings of 57 to 60 percent. Keep in mind the Gallup Poll’s rule of thumb: When Congress’s job-approval rating is 40 percent or higher, the average midterm election net change in the House is just five seats; when its approval is below 40 percent, the average net change is 29 seats.
[…]

DeLay May Endorse Write-In Candidate for His Seat

Jon Ponder

The situation around Tom DeLay’s House seat in Texas gets curiouser and curiouser. Yesterday, the Supreme Court shocked the world by refusing to hear an appeal about the case that seeks to remove DeLay’s name from the ballot and replace him with another Republican.

The denial of the appeal apparently left the Texas GOP with only two options: Keep DeLay’s name on the ballot or remove it entirely, meaning the Democrat, Nick Lampson, would run unopposed.

But DeLay is considering a third option:

[What] if DeLay steps aside and endorses a write-in candidate?

That’s a possibility, reports Time’s super-scooper Mike Allen.

A Republican official with first-hand knowledge of the deliberations by DeLay said he “more likely than not” will go that route, although he had not made a final decision. “With DeLay, you never know,” the official said.

Maybe — but:

It’s true that the TX GOP and DeLay agreed that a DeLay-less ballot would be less worrisome than a slate with the former congressman. But it’s not clear whether the party would be willing to fork over the money — or help raise the money — to mount a write-in bid.

Christian Right Worried about Drop in Youth Attendance

Jon Ponder

Via Pam’s House Blend:

The new president of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) says he is disturbed that many students in both public and private schools — even Christian private schools — are leaving the church once they graduate.

In 2002, the SBC’s Council on Family Life reported that roughly 88 percent of evangelical children are leaving the church shortly after they graduate from high school. Dr. Frank Page, the denomination’s new president, says SBC churches need to counter that statistic by finding ways to make themselves more relatable, more pertinent and significant to students before they graduate.

“We’re seeing a societal trend where a large number of young people are opting out of the church,” Page notes. “Estimates of 15 to 20 million people now in America have said they are Christians but they simply don’t want to be a part of the church,” he says.

And in related news:

A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of Americans age 18 to 24 found Bush’s approval rating was 20 percent, with 53 percent disapproving and 28 percent with no opinion. That compares to a 40 percent approval rating among Americans of all ages in a separate Bloomberg/Times poll.

Could New ‘Anti-Stupidity’ Drug Mean Death of the GOP?

Jon Ponder

As we reported below, half the populace believes there were WMD in Iraq — and we know which half that is, don’t we? This could be good news:

A German scientist has been testing an “anti-stupidity” pill with encouraging results on mice and fruit flies, Bild newspaper reported Saturday.

It said Hans-Hilger Ropers, director at Max-Planck-Institute for Molecular Genetics in Berlin, has tested a pill thwarting hyperactivity in certain brain nerve cells, helping stabilize short-term memory and improve attentiveness.

“With mice and fruit flies we were able to eliminate the loss of short-term memory,” Ropers, 62, is quoted saying in the German newspaper, which has dubbed it the “world’s first anti-stupidity pill.”

Disparity Between Anti-Semitism Stories a Sad Commentary

Buck Banks

Who hates Jews more: The drunk guy who slurrily cursed them and then apologized, or the guy who shot five Jews, one fatally? You don’t have to decide — the media has done it for you, according to a column by Jeff Jacoby of the Boston Globe.

Jacoby said the Mel Gibson anti-Semitic tirade turned up 888 hits on a Nexis search, while the story of Naveeq Haq’s attack with an automatic weapon on the Jewish League of Seattle received coverage in only 236 stories. Jacoby asks, Why the disparity?

No doubt part of the answer is that Gibson is a celebrity, and that “The Passion,” his 2004 movie about the crucifixion, was criticized by many as a revival of the infamous anti-Semitic motif of Jews as Christ-killers. Gibson, who belongs to a traditionalist Catholic sect, was already suspected of harboring ill will toward Jews. His crude remarks on July 28 confirmed it, and pushed the subject back into the spotlight. But if previous behavior and religious belief explain the burst of interest in the Gibson story, they only deepen the question of why the Seattle bloodshed was played down. After all, Haq is not the first example of what scholar Daniel Pipes has called “Sudden Jihad Syndrome,” in which a seemingly nonviolent Muslim erupts in a murderous rampage.

….

If the Catholic Gibson’s nonviolent bigotry is a legitimate subject of media scrutiny, all the more so is the animus that spurs Muslims like Haq and the others to jihadist murder. As The New York Sun asked the other day, how many more Haqs must erupt in a homicidal rage before we open our eyes “to the possibility that they are part of a war in which understanding the enemy is a prerequisite for victory?”

Poll: One In Two Americans Believes Iraq Had WMDs

Buck Banks

Fifty percent can be all wrong: A new Harris poll suggests that half of Americans believe Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction at the time Bushco decided to invade Iraq. And it appears that the delusion has been maintained and even enhanced by strong partisan rhetoric by bloggers and conservative media, as well as by individuals’ personal psychological need to find a justification for the ongoing war. The Associated Press reports:

People tend to become “independent of reality” in these circumstances, says opinion analyst Steven Kull.

The reality in this case is that after a 16-month, $900-million-plus investigation, the U.S. weapons hunters known as the Iraq Survey Group declared that Iraq had dismantled its chemical, biological and nuclear arms programs in 1991 under U.N. oversight. That finding in 2004 reaffirmed the work of U.N. inspectors who in 2002-03 found no trace of banned arsenals in Iraq.

Despite this, a Harris Poll released July 21 found that a full 50 percent of U.S. respondents — up from 36 percent last year — said they believe Iraq did have the forbidden arms when U.S. troops invaded in March 2003, an attack whose stated purpose was elimination of supposed WMD. Other polls also have found an enduring American faith in the WMD story.

“ARE SADDAM HUSSEIN’S WMDS NOW IN HEZBOLLAH’S HANDS?”
— Fox News

Pollsters say that the timing of the poll may help explain the results:

Two weeks before the survey, two Republican lawmakers, Pennsylvania’s Sen. Rick Santorum and Michigan’s Rep. Peter Hoekstra, released an intelligence report in Washington saying 500 chemical munitions had been collected in Iraq since the 2003 invasion.

“I think the Harris Poll was measuring people’s surprise at hearing this after being told for so long there were no WMD in the country,” said Hoekstra spokesman Jamal Ware.

But the Pentagon and outside experts stressed that these abandoned shells, many found in ones and twos, were 15 years old or more, their chemical contents were degraded, and they were unusable as artillery ordnance. Since the 1990s, such “orphan” munitions, from among 160,000 made by Iraq and destroyed, have turned up on old battlefields and elsewhere in Iraq, ex-inspectors say. In other words, this was no surprise.

The no-surprise aspect of the non-story didn’t stop the — surprise! — wingnuts from jumping all over it:

Conservative commentator Deroy Murdock, who trumpeted Hoekstra’s announcement in his syndicated column, complained in an interview that the press “didn’t give the story the play it deserved.” But in some quarters it was headlined.

“Our top story tonight, the nation abuzz today …” was how Fox News led its report on the old, stray shells. Talk-radio hosts and their callers seized on it. Feedback to blogs grew intense. “Americans are waking up from a distorted reality,” read one posting.

Other claims about supposed WMD had preceded this, especially speculation since 2003 that Iraq had secretly shipped WMD abroad. A former Iraqi general’s book — at best uncorroborated hearsay — claimed “56 flights” by jetliners had borne such material to Syria.

[…]

Cellphone Crutch Helps Cretins Converse On Culture

Buck Banks

Cellular crib notes: As I was reading Media Bistro over lunch, I came across an employment ad that looked interesting: “Pop Culture & Entertainment Writers in Anywhere, USA.” Following the link, I came to an ad placed by Moderati Inc., makers of Modtones mobile phone ringtones.

While I find “creative” ringtones only slightly less annoying than the people who pay for them, Modtones assured me that it could “Turn your phone into a house-rocking hit machine with Modtones. This ain’t yo momma’s ringtone!” “But I don’t need a rocking hit machine to make a phone call!” says my inner fogey.

The most popular Modtones songtones included “Ridin'” by Chamillionaire, “Unfaithful” by Rihanna, “Me and U” by Cassie and “London Bridge (Chorus)” by Fergie. Apparently people fork over $2.99 for one of these one-named wonders’ songs to distinguish their cellular phone from the next guy’s when it goes off in the middle of a movie. Or a funeral.

It’s a combination of tips & tools to help people fake their way through the competitive social scene using their cell phone

But back to the ad. Moderati is launching a mobile product that could prove to be even more obnoxious than their ringtones. The company is looking for copywriters for … I can’t explain it:

It’s a combination of tips & tools to help people fake their way through the competitive social scene using their cell phone. We’re seeking good, punchy writers who can contribute little scoops (about 2-3 sentences) on current goings-on in pop culture, entertainment, music and fashion.

To be considered, please send a couple sample blurbs on the topic of your choice in pop culture, and we’ll contact you with more information. Your blurb should explain the topic and give a distinct point of view, suitable for subscribers to use as conversation starters. Snarky smart-asses welcome!

OK, let me get this straight, so these are conversation starters for people who have Shakira’s “Thighs Don’t Lie” as their ringtone? To help them “fake” they have something to say, glancing at their phone cupped in their palm like they’re reading crib notes? If you need that kind of help, you belong on the bench watching the “competitive social scene.”

How hard can it be to have somehting to say about pop culture? Listen to AM radio. Watch “Entertainment Tonight.” Read “Tiger Beat” magazine or Fark.com. I mean, if one were trying to chat up a hot prospect about politics and culture, one could read Pensito Review, of course, but then readers of PR probably don’t have ringtones featuring “Miss New Booty (Edited)” by Bubba Sparxxx.

I wish Moderati luck with their product, especially with generating a need for it. But this seems to be just another senseless technological solution to a nonexistent problem aimed at the 14-24 demographic, a generation already overly dependent on electronics for, not even entertainment, but just stimluli. They have been so thoroughly overloaded by cartoons, music videos, video games, iPods and cellphones that, like some smack-addled junkie, they can’t create a cogent ice-breaker in the competitive social scene. So they look to their little electronic guru to help them “fake” having a brain, a personality and an opinion on whether Paris Hilton is really through with men and is now celibate, fer sure.

We are becoming a nation of pod people, separated by a couple of earbuds and a million miles. It’s no wonder we’ve forgotten how to start a conversation — we’re too busy not listening to each other.