Do unto others: Right-wing Christian groups are losing their ability to drive the Republican Party’s agenda and, by extension, their ability to push policy in the mid-term elections. That’s the assertion of Nathan Gonzales, writing in the Rothenberg Political Report.
President Bush is an easy target these days. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing and even Bush’s loyal supporters are taking the opportunity to pile-on. Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family and other evangelical leaders are criticizing the president for inaction on social issues dear to their hearts and threatening to withhold their support in the November elections.
While the threat seems intimidating at first glance, the concept of staying home in November carries little long-term consequences for President Bush and Republicans but virtually certain consequences for the very issues social conservatives wish to promote.
Note to evangelicals: it will be harder to get your agenda passed by exercising a strategy that allows political friends to be defeated for reelection.
Gonsales notes that Bush is not on the ballot in November, and while evangelicals took credit for re-electing the president, giving the GOP a majority in the House and taking over the Senate, their core issues remain marginalized to a great extent, at least on the national stage. While some states are passing legislation against gay marriage, neither Bush nor any Repugs in congress have pushed for a national gay marriage ban. But if the Christian rightwingers try to punish Bush for not strongly condemning gay marriage in November, they’ll really end up hurting their cause, noted Gonzales:
So, by attempting to punish Bush in November by staying home, evangelicals will actually punish conservatives like Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), Sen. George Allen (R-VA), Cong. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Cong. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ), Cong. Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO), and others who could be sent packing by voters instead.
Note to evangelicals: it will be harder to get your agenda passed by exercising a strategy that allows political friends to be defeated for reelection. Then you’re left with an uncooperative and unpopular president, minorities in Congress, and no friends in those minorities.
On a macro-level, Republicans are already in danger of losing their majorities, but dismal turnout by base Republicans will make Democratic takeovers near-certainties. Then, conservative evangelicals would have no hope of getting their issues passed and would be lucky to get a meeting with the new majority, let alone private nurturing.
Gonzales says that the Babble-thumpers have placed themselves in a political predicament that King Solomon probably couldn’t resolve. They put all their eggs in the Republican basket, but with Bush becoming increasingly irrelevant they have nowhere to turn, having long ago alienated centrists and liberals.
The current rhetoric of Dobson, Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins, and others shows a complete misunderstanding of the political environment. President Bush is not broadly unpopular because he has failed to ban same-sex marriage.
Yet, conservative evangelicals continue to press him to do so.
With the War in Iraq and increasing threats from Iran, if President Bush were to spend all of his time and energy on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, he would simply look silly, and his job approval ratings would likely plummet even further.
The idea of “staying home” to punish the Republican Party is absurd. For conservative evangelicals to tout the fundamental need for freedom and democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan, but simply ignore their own opportunity to vote here in America is hypocritical.
For too many conservative evangelicals, the message appears to be: if you don’t get what you want, stay home. Apparently, to some of these evangelical leaders, the best way to win the political game is to take themselves out of it. That makes little sense in today’s world, or in today’s politics.
