Ripe for the picking? There is a good chance that a Democrat might win the special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Duke Cunningham, the Republican who resigned after admitting to taking $2.4 million in bribes from a defense contractor:
Democrat Francine Busby, the Cardiff school district board trustee and the party’s 2004 candidate for the 50th District seat … secured the endorsement of EMILY’s List late last week, ensuring she will have the financial backing to be competitive. EMILY’s List President Ellen Malcolm said Monday that Cunningham’s resignation and “the whole constellation of issues” (i.e. Iraq and rising gas prices) “could change the mood” enough to elect Busby.
House Republicans aren’t worried yet. “Busby got 36% in the last election. NOTHING has changed in this district outside of the current congressman resigning. And she is not running against the current congressman,” said Carl Forti, spokesman at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Martha McKenna, political director of EMILY’s List, said the organization has been working with Busby for some time and believes she is a much improved candidate following a 58 percent to 36 percent defeat at the hands of Cunningham last November. (As the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter notes, Busby underperformed John Kerry in the district by eight points in 2004, a worrisome sign for her ability to unify the Democratic base behind her candidacy.) McKenna compared Busby to Reps. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) and Stephanie Herseth (D-S.D.), both of whom lost their first race for Congress. “[Busby] is much more serious about her campaign,” said McKenna.
Busby is certainly in better financial shape (even without the EMILY’s List endorsement) than she was in 2004. Last year she spent $212,000 compared to $940,000 for Cunningham. At the end of October, Busby had $176,000 in the bank, having raised $251,000 so far in 2005. None of the potential Republicans were anywhere near that total — understandable since Busby has been running for the better part of the year while the Republicans have only been in the contest since Cunningham first announced his retirement mid-July.
Much depends on which Republican emerges from the open primary, which Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) seems likely to set for April 11 with an early June runoff if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote.
The GOP field has yet to sort itself out, but the entrance of former Rep. Brian Bilbray, a moderate, could make it difficult for Busby to gain traction. If a more conservative Republican (or one without much campaign experience) gets the most votes in the open primary, Busby’s chances improve…
The X-factor in this special election is what the political atmospherics look like when California voters go to the ballot box next spring …
Cunningham’s resignation after acknowledging that he accepted $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors, coupled with former San Diego Mayor Dick Murphy’s (R) resignation earlier this year, seemingly create an appetite for change in the 50th District.
