The Mood in California One Day before the Special Election
Make him go away: When Arnold Schwarzenegger entered politics he cast himself as a latter day Ronald Reagan, the actor turned politician who went from governor of California to president of the United States. The flaw in this scenario is that while Arnold may be Reagan’s intellectual equal, he lacks even one-tenth of Ronnie’s political instincts.
A closer model for the Schwarzenegger governorship would be the Jesse Ventura administration in Minnesota. The former wrestler won the governorship in an upset, only to watch his popularity among voters decline until it all but ceased to exist.
A poll published last week showed that Schwarzenegger’s approval rating is 33 percent (which is three percentage points lower than President Bush). The remnants of Arnold’s credibility hang on the election tomorrow. But even if all four of his initiatives were to win, all it would buy him is another chance to win back a few Independents – the rest of us are lost to him forever.
It is also very unlikely to happen:
Schwarzenegger is backing four out of eight initiatives on the ballot Tuesday in a state that since 1911 has used initiatives as an end-run around its legislature. If approved, the measures would give Schwarzenegger an enormous boost, granting him the power to cut the state’s budget unilaterally and hobbling his biggest foe, organized labor.
But three recent polls, by the Public Policy Institute of California, the Field Research Corporation and the Los Angeles Times, seem to suggest that the governor is headed for a political Judgment Day. Of the four ballot measures Schwarzenegger is backing, only one — [Proposition 74, which seeks to micromanage teacher tenure,] is the weakest in terms of policy consequences — seems primed to pass, according to the polls.
Among those trailing is a measure that would strip the authority from the Democratic-controlled legislature to draw lines for legislative and congressional districts, and shift it to a panel of retired judges…
In California, Democratic Party and union activists — who have outspent Schwarzenegger by tens of millions of dollars in the campaign to defeat his measures — are almost giddy when discussing Tuesday’s vote. “I’m cautiously optimistic,” quipped Gale Kaufman, one of the lead strategists. And then she cackled loudly.
It may be too soon for giddiness – and if just one of the propositions passes we should be prepared for Arnold to take a victory lap around the state.
Not that it will help him much. California has a high concentration of media-savvy voters, and one gripe pollsters hear from them is that Schwarzenegger’s stage managed “fake news” events have worn well past thin.
Reagan, as dim as he was, had a true trouper’s sense of when to reign in the schmaltz. Schwarzenegger cut his teeth as a body builder, which is entertainment mostly played out in front of a mirror. His connection with the public is all show and no heart. He can’t stop preening and flexing his muscles even after the crowd has moved on.



More hot water for Rove: There’s a new outbreak of Republican corruption, and this time it’s not in the energy sector or the Pentagon, it’s at the top of the public broadcasting bureaucracy. 
