The slow-mo death spiral of the California Republican Party may have accelerated last week with the release of three separate economic reports. First, a new jobs report found that 38,300 net new jobs were added in California in June, with gains in most industries, including construction and professional services. Next, a report from Zillow indicated that house prices nationwide appear to have bottomed out and have risen slightly over the past four months, while another report found that the number of California homes entering foreclosure was down to 2007 levels. And finally, an assessment of commercial real-estate trends suggests that the office market appears to be bouncing back in Southern California.
This is all worrisome news for state GOP leaders who have pinned their strategy for turning around their party’s woes on hopes that the state will continue to suffer under a stagnant economy. Unfortunately for California Republicans, they do not have enough seats in the Legislature to deliberately obstruct economic recovery in the state as their counterparts in Washington have done to the national economy.
Making all that just a wee bit worse, just what the California GOP didn’t need — publicity. The national media — in this case, the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney — has noticed that the state party is withering on the vine:
[The] state party — once a symbol of Republican hope and geographical reach and which gave the nation Ronald Reagan (and Richard M. Nixon) — is caught in a cycle of relentless decline, and appears in danger of shrinking to the rank of a minor party.
“We are at a lower point than we’ve ever been,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the No. 3 Republican in the United States House of Representatives. “It’s rebuilding time.”
Registered Republicans now account for just 30 percent of the California electorate, and are on a path that analysts predict could drop them to No. 3 in six years, behind Democrats, who currently make up 43 percent, and independent voters, with 21 percent.
“It’s no longer a statewide party,” said Allan Hoffenblum, who worked for 30 years as a Republican consultant in California. “They are down to 30 percent, which makes it impossible to win a statewide election. You just can’t get enough crossover voters.”
“They have alienated large swaths of voters,” he said. “They have become too doctrinaire on the social issues. It’s become a cult.”
There is not a single Republican holding statewide office. Democrats overwhelmingly control the State Assembly and Senate. In interviews, Republicans were unable to come up with any names of credible candidates preparing to run for statewide office. By contrast, the Democratic bench is bustling with ambitious younger politicians who are waiting for their moment. It is a giant turnaround since 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger knocked out the Democratic governor, Gray Davis, in a recall election and set out to build a more moderate Republican Party.
And:
“The national party is becoming a party of very enthusiastic social conservatives driven by Southerners,” said Bill Whalen, a fellow with the conservative Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “It’s a problem if you’re an independent voter in California. If you think about the Republican Party, what national figure comes to mind? George W. Bush or Newt Gingrich.”
And:
“The institution of the California Republican Party, I would argue, has effectively collapsed,” said Steve Schmidt, a Republican consultant who was a senior adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger. “It doesn’t do any of the things that a political party should do. It doesn’t register voters. It doesn’t recruit candidates. It doesn’t raise money. The Republican Party in the state institutionally has become a small ideological club that is basically in the business of hunting out heretics.”
“When you look at the population growth, the actual party is shrinking,” Mr. Schmidt said. “It’s becoming more white. It’s becoming older. “
Nagourney notes that the party’s decline began in 1994, when it passed Proposition 187, a draconian law that would have prevented undocumented people from attending schools or receiving health care, among other things, had it not been struck down in court. The bigotry toward immigrants expressed by Republicans nationwide is contributing to the state party’s woes.
“The manner in which immigration is handled nationally presents a challenge to Republicans in California,” Mr. Del Beccaro said, in the Times.
The GOP has other problems besides immigration that is giving it major headaches. Republicans have a problem accepting the fact that People of Color, LGBTQ persons, atheists, Muslims, Hispanics, and others are as American as they are and are entitled to the same rights that they have. I also cannot fail to mention that bigotry and racism are alive an well in the GOP. Not every member of the GOP is a racist or a bigot, but they tolerate it, and they have allowed people like Louie Gohmert, Michele Bachmann, Russel Pearce and Chris Kobach to become highly visible spokespersons for their party.