Day: May 21, 2006

Divorce Rate of Evangelicals Was Higher Than Non-Believers in Christian Study

Jon Ponder

The source for this post is the Baptist Standard, no less, and even though the data are six years old, these are stunning statistics — especially since these are the very people who are desperate to “save” “traditional marriage” from gays:

The Christian group whose adherents have the highest likelihood of getting divorced are Baptists.

“Born-again” Christians are more likely to go through a marital split than are non-Christians, according to a new study by the Barna Research Group.

Using statistics drawn from a nationwide survey of nearly 4,000 adults, the Barna data show 11 percent of the adult population currently is divorced but that 25 percent of all adults have experienced at least one divorce.

Among “born-again” Christians, 27 percent currently are divorced or previously have been divorced, compared with 24 percent among adults who are not “born again.”

Surprisingly, the Barna report said, the Christian group whose adherents have the highest likelihood of getting divorced are Baptists. The only group to surpass Baptists were Christians associated with non-denominational Protestant churches.

According to the company website, Barna Group, which is located in Ventura, California, provides research on Christian issues.

The Bush Effect: Pollsters Add More Vulnerable GOP House Seats to List for November

Jon Ponder

I’m starting to worry about all the high-fivin’ on the left over the likelihood the Dems will take back Congress this year. Still, it’s okay to dream:

The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.

Some veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents’ poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.

The changes don’t guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has remained relatively constant while the number of potentially competitive Republican districts continues to climb.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including Drake’s, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts… “That’s a pretty significant increase,” he said. “The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long.”

At the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter has revised an analysis of the battle for control of the House, taking into account the sour mood toward Republicans nationally as a potentially significant factor in races that might otherwise turn on local issues, candidate performance or the size of campaign war chests.

“In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown out the window,” Walter said. “Under-funded candidates beat better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time challengers.”

It also becomes harder for Republicans to steal elections when the results are not evenly divided.

Nagin Wins Re-election in New Orleans

Jon Ponder

Every now and then there is a a surprising result in politics:

Nine months after Hurricane Katrina swamped his city and transformed him from virtual shoo-in to ripe target, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin surged to a second term Saturday, besting Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu to maintain leadership of a city still languishing in ruin…

With all precincts reporting, Nagin had 52 percent of the vote, compared with Landrieu’s 48 percent. It was the narrowest margin of victory for a sitting mayor in the city’s modern history…

Returns showed that 113,591 people cast a ballot for mayor, or about 38 percent of the city’s 298,512 eligible voters. Nearly 25,000 people — almost one-fourth of those who cast ballots — mailed or faxed in an absentee ballot or voted in person at one of 10 balloting centers set up around the state for early voting. Turnout was 1 percent higher than in the primary.