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40
Based on the historical relationship between a president’s approval rate and the number of House seats his party loses in the midterm election, Charles Franklin finds that President Trump’s current 38.5% approval rate suggests that Republicans will lose almost 40 seats this November.
“Since Inauguration Day, President Trump has had the lowest job-approval ratings of any newly elected president since the first ‘scientifically based’ poll by George Gallup in 1936. More than anything else, midterm elections are referenda on the incumbent president. Obviously no one knows what is going to happen in next year’s midterm elections, but analysts who have watched congressional elections for a long time are seeing signs that 2018 could be a wave election that flips control of the House to Democrats.”