Trump’s Base Shrinks; Dem’s Base Grows

-2.1 million versus +13.3 million

Thomas Edsall: “One of the most significant developments in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election has emerged largely under the radar. From 2016 to 2022, the number of white people without college degrees — the core of Donald Trump’s support — has fallen by 2.1 million. Over the same period, the number of white people who have graduated from college — an increasingly Democratic constituency — has grown by 13.3 million.”

Ryan: Trump Stands Up for the ‘Forgotten Man’

“He’s not taking any crap. I mean, he’s taking on political correctness; he’s taking fights that a lot of people want to see fought. The forgotten man that he speaks to is a person that finally feels like they’re being taken seriously, they’re being paid attention to. And he’s concerned about their issues. … That is the guttural core of what I would call the party base right now, the Trump base.”

— Former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), telling PBS Newshour that President Trump’s popularity is because he stands up for the “forgotten man.”

Trump’s Base Is Turning Against Him

7 points

A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds President Trump’s approval rating down by a net 7-point change to 39% to 53% over the last month. The movement has come from within key portions of his base: He’s down significantly among suburban men, a net-positive approval rating of 51% to 39% to a net-negative of 42% approve, 48% disapprove. That’s a net change of down 18 percentage points. He’s also down a net of 13 points among white evangelicals and down a net of 10 points among Republicans.