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If I were a Republican, I’d be scared shitless about what Trump might do to my party next year. The presidential election won’t be a runaway, because that isn’t how it works anymore. But I’d be very worried that Trump loses all the states he lost in 2020—and by a little more than he lost them the last time—plus maybe North Carolina, which would bump Biden’s Electoral College margin up to 319–219, which in a headline sounds like a rout. And the somewhat higher margins in Arizona, Georgia, et al. would foreclose any serious attempt to cry foul. Swing voters just wouldn’t buy it.
A new Monmouth poll finds a majority of Republican voters feel Donald Trump would be their strongest nominee in the 2024 election.“Nearly half (45%) of Republican voters – including those who lean toward the GOP – say Trump is definitely the strongest candidate to beat President Joe Biden in 2024, and another 18% think he is probably the strongest candidate. Just one-third of GOP voters say another Republican would definitely (13%) or probably (19%) be a stronger candidate than Trump.”
47% to 40%
New York Post: The WPA Intelligence survey of 1,571 registered voters found Biden, 80, leading 76-year-old Trump 47% to 40%. By comparison, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5 percentage points in the 2020 popular vote, while former President Barack Obama won re-election over Republican Mitt Romney by 3.9 percentage points in 2012.
44% to 38%
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds President Biden leading possible challenger Donald Trump in a presidential race, 44% to 38%. Also important: 63% of voters said they were less likely to support a presidential candidate who backs severe restrictions on abortion.
“A Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by pro-Trump super PAC pollster Tony Fabrizio) suggests the answer: It found that among voters who disapprove of both Trump and Biden, Biden leads Trump by a massive 39 points: 54 percent to 15 percent. Clearly, swing voters who dislike Biden dislike Trump even more.”
A new Morning Consult poll finds that 54% of potential Republican primary voters say Donald Trump has the best chance of defeating President Biden in the 2024 presidential election, compared with just 25% who say Ron DeSantis.
A new NBC News poll found that 60 percent of Americans think Trump shouldn’t try to retake the Oval Office — including roughly a third of Republicans. Thirty percent of those who think he shouldn’t campaign in 2024 cite the criminal charges he faces in New York as a “major” reason. At the same time, 70 percent of Americans think Biden shouldn’t seek a second term — including 51 percent of Democrats. Forty-eight percent of those who said he shouldn’t run again cited his age as a “major” reason.
“I don’t think he can win in November of ’24. He could be the nominee. But I do not believe, and I think most people would agree, he’s just going to — not going to be able to close the deal in November of ’24. … We just have to find another candidate at this point.”
— New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) to CBS News.
“There is no bottom to the degree to which he’s willing to degrade himself, and the country for that matter. Having dinner with those people was disgusting… I voted to remove him from office twice… I don’t think he should be president of the United states. I don’t think he should be the nominee of our party in 2024. And I certainly don’t want him hanging over our party like a gargoyle.”
— Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), quoted by NBC News, on Donald Trump having dinner with Holocaust deniers.
“The hats’ll have to say MAGAGA — make America great and glorious again. If it makes you gag, get used to it.”
— Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe on Twitter