Survey Shows an Independent Candidate Hurts the Democrats. Helps the GOP


A new Politico/Morning Consult poll shows that “while only 26% of voters who approve of Trump’s job performance as president are very or somewhat likely to consider a third-party candidate, a larger percentage of Trump disapprovers, 41%, would consider voting for an independent. By party, nearly a third of Democrats, 31%, say they would consider a third-party candidate — greater than the 25% of Republicans who would consider voting for someone other than the two major-party nominees.

Trump 40 Percent Strategy Relies on Third-Party Candidates

NBC News’ First Read: “The reaction to the news of the latest Trump campaign shake-up has ranged from shock and disbelief to laughter… But there is one strategic way it makes sense: Team Trump views the 2016 presidential contest as a race to 40%. Under that scenario, you somehow assume that Libertarian Gary Johnson will get more than 15% of the popular vote, and that the Green Party’s Jill Stein will get more than 5%.”

See the rest of the analysis below.