Sanders Fading in New Hampshire

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A new Emerson poll in New Hampshire finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 24%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21%, Bernie Sanders at 13%, Pete Buttigieg at 11%, Kamala Harris at 8%, Tulsi Gabbard at 6%, Cory Booker at 4%, Andrew Yang at 3% and John Delaney at 3%. In February, Sanders led the race with 27%.

Biden Team Already Lowering Expectations

“We must be getting closer to the primaries and caucuses, because Joe Biden’s team on Tuesday began the job of lowering expectations. They’re now making the case that the former vice president could still take the nomination even if he doesn’t win in either Iowa or New Hampshire. … As Steve Kornacki correctly says, no one has actually done this since the modern nomination system began in 1972. (And as Kornacki adds, Bill Clinton in 1992 doesn’t count because all the other candidates conceded Iowa to home-state Senator Tom Harkin.) … It’s not just that failing to win would hurt Biden; it’s that failing to win would mean someone else won, and that candidate might be well positioned to capitalize on an early victory.”

Jonathan Bernstein

N.H. Is Big for Trump

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Is the number to watch in New Hampshire. “That’s Mr. Trump’s share of the vote in the last New Hampshire polls. If he finishes well beneath that mark, it will raise some pretty serious questions about just how legitimate his support is nationwide — whether it’s because late deciders keep moving against him or because his mediocre field operation is failing to mobilize infrequent voters.” — Nate Cohn, The New York Times