Tag: Election 2018
Democrats Turning Out to Vote — Massively
89%
NBC News: “Republican House primaries produced about 24% more votes than they did in 2014. But Democratic House primaries in 2018 produced 89% more votes than they did four years ago… That’s nearly a doubling in the number Democratic House votes this year and it’s enough to give Democrats a big lead over Republicans in votes this year. In total, 4.3 million more Democrats voted in House primaries this year than Republicans.”
NBC News: “Republican House primaries produced about 24% more votes than they did in 2014. But Democratic House primaries in 2018 produced 89% more votes than they did four years ago… That’s nearly a doubling in the number Democratic House votes this year and it’s enough to give Democrats a big lead over Republicans in votes this year. In total, 4.3 million more Democrats voted in House primaries this year than Republicans.”
Dems Open Wide Lead for Congress
52% to 40%
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Democrats hold a 12-point lead in congressional preference among registered voters, 52% to 40%, with nearly six-in-10 saying they’d like to see significant change in the direction President Trump has been leading the country. Key finding: And by a 42% to 31% margin, voters say their message in November will be for more Democrats to serve as a check and balance to Trump and the congressional Republicans, instead of Republicans who will help Trump and the GOP pass their agenda.” A new Fox News poll shows Democrats leading 49% to 42%.
More than Half of Ever-Trumpers Don’t Think Dems Can Win House
57%
A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll finds most voters believe Democrats will win back the House—just not Republican voters. “Fully half of self-identified Republicans don’t believe Democrats are likely to win back the House. And within that group, 57% of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37% believe they do).”
Dems Leading in Arizona and Tennessee
7 points
A new CNN poll in Arizona finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) tops Martha McSally (R) by 7 points in the U.S. senate race, 50% to 43% among likely voters. In Tennessee, Phil Bredesen (D) holds a 5-point edge over Marsha Blackburn (R), 50% to 45% among likely voters there. Roughly 1 in 6 voters in each state say there’s a chance they’ll change their mind before Election Day.
Democrats Contesting More Districts than Ever in U.S. History
436
Ballot Access News: “In the November 2018 election, there will be Democrats on the ballot in all but two U.S. House districts. No party in the history of government-printed ballots has ever before had candidates on the ballot in that many districts. Even in the 1930’s, the Democrats did not have that many nominees. The Republican Party has never had that many candidates.”
Thirty Races Shift Toward Democrats
30
Inside Elections shifted their race ratings of 30 House contests in the direction of Democrats and just two towards Republicans. They now have 86 total seats “in play,” of which 76 are currently held by Republicans.
Kudlow: The ‘Blue Wall Has Crashed’
“The confidence indices are telling a very important story, and POTUS is polling in the low to mid fifties on the economy. The great blue wall has crashed. I think GOP will lose seats but keep the House.”
— White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, quoted by Politico.
Bannon Puts Midterms in Perspective
“This election is very simple. It’s an up-or-down vote on impeachment.”
— Stephen Bannon, quoted by Vanity Fair.
Dems Ahead in Three Midwestern Governor Races
Three
NBC News/Marist polled possible match ups for governor in three key Midwestern states:
• In Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D) leads Gov. Scott Walker (R), 54% to 41%.
• In Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer (D) leads Bill Schuette (R), 47% to 38%.
• In Minnesota, Lori Swanson (D) leads Tim Pawlenty (R) 51% to 40%, while Tim Walz (D) leads Pawlenty (R) 51% to 40%.
