Tag: Charlie Crist

The speculation in Florida that Gov. Charlie Crist might switch parties to beat his Republican challenger in the U.S. Senate race, Marco Rubio, says a lot about the state of the Republican party. First, that it’s easy to see why the previously described moderate Crist might be more comfortable going the “Independent Republican” route, ala Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, belies how far to the right the energy on the GOP side has shifted. Second, that it’s equally easy to see Rubio going the Tea Party route — and winning — shows how much the Chronically Aggrieved demographic of the electorate, ala Sarah Palin, has grown.

Crist continues to deny he’s toying with a switch.

“It’s not something I’m thinking about,” Crist told the Times/Herald in Tallahassee last week. “I’m comfortable about the race. I know what the numbers are, but we’ve got six months to go, and the public really doesn’t know the opponent.”

To a Human Events reporter last week in Washington: “Some friends of mine talked to me about it, but I haven’t embraced it. I’m running as a Republican.”

And we know about those embraces from Charlie. The one he gave Obama when the president visited the state early in his term is still a thorn in Crist’s side, leaving a wound which Rubio takes every opportunity to reopen.

We who live in Florida also recognize a weak Crist denial when we hear one, and the governor’s not quite “No” is helping to keep the rumors going.

The Crist camp blames the Rubio camp for generating this buzz, maybe as payback for the Rubio camp’s claims that Crist, or more likely his good buddy, disgraced Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) chair Jim Greer, was behind the release of the records from Rubio’s RPOF credit card. They revealed the high-dollar hair cuts and three-digit lunch tabs one might expect a Tea Bagger fiscal conservative type to avoid. (Unless one is familiar with Sarah Palin, of course, and then Rubio would fit the mold to a “tea.”) Greer could also have been paying the Rubio folks back for his resignation/ouster, which came after months of Rubio supporters turning on Greer for ignoring party rules and endorsing a candidate in the primary, i.e. Greer’s old pal Crist.

Standing safely on dry land is the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (Miami). Meek continues to criss-cross the state, meeting voters from the Daytona Speedway to black churches to fire stations and diners. Despite his efforts and progressive voting record, local Democratic activists complain that they have little sense of Meek as a man and would like to see more passion and personality than his handlers seem to allow.

Meek’s strategy of leaving the two Republicans to try to drown one another and address only the survivor would fall flat if the race stayed a three-way, with either Crist or Rubio running on a third party ticket. But if that’s going to happen, it better happen soon.

Under Florida law, Crist would have to change parties by the April 30 qualifying deadline. That means Crist could not pull a Joe Lieberman — lose in the August primary and then run in the general election as an independent candidate.

The scenario goes like this: Crist concludes in late April that he simply cannot win the Republican primary — two polls last week showed him trailing Rubio by 18 points — and that his best and only hope would be to run as an independent. Using the more than $7 million he has on hand already, Crist would cast Rubio as Attila the Hun and Democrat Kendrick Meek as a sure loser and then peel off enough moderate voters and independents to win the general election.

“That would certainly end his presidential aspirations, but Charlie Crist would be formidable as an independent candidate,” said Democratic fundraiser Mitchell Berger of Fort Lauderdale, a strong Meek supporter. “Objectively, I do think he has the ability to win over Democrats,” he said.

I felt early on that people underestimated Rubio, and time — plus the rise of the Tea Bagger movement — certainly bear that out. If Meek is going to stand a chance, he better wade into the Crist/Rubio swamp soon. And Crist and Rubio better watch each other closely to see who looks as if he’s about to row over to the third party sandbar.