What Happens After the SOTU?

The chamber of the House of Representatives is seen at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Feb. 28, 2022, where President Joe Biden will deliver his State of the Union speech Tuesday night to a joint session of Congress and the nation. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)


Dan Pfeiffer
has what seems like a pretty savvy take on the upcoming State of the Union address:

“Biden will give an excellent speech that is well-received by the public and the pundits. The post-speech flash polls will be overwhelmingly favorable. There will be a renewed sense of momentum. Some reporters will even write stories about the President’s ‘comeback.’ And then, a week or so later, a new poll will not show a dramatic gain in the President’s approval. The same pundits touting the comeback will immediately pivot and declare the speech a failure.”

“Those folks will simply be revealing themselves to be ignorant of how modern politics works.”

“Presidential approval is a lagging indicator. The political goal of the speech is to strengthen a number of attributes and character traits that will serve as the foundation for winning back the voters Biden has lost in the last year. I will be watching to see if the speech improves public perception of Biden as a ‘strong leader’ and someone who ‘fights for people like me.’ Biden won in 2020 because the public overwhelmingly believed he had the experience and strength to handle the crisis Trump fumbled and, as the son of Scranton, would be an advocate for middle and working-class people. Those impressions have eroded amidst the neverending run of crises and the rise in inflation. This speech is an opportunity to begin the path back.”

Biden’s Approval Tanks

44% to 53%

A new Pew Research poll finds President Biden’s approval rate upside down at 44% to 53%, a sharp decline since July. “There also are signs that the public is generally becoming more pessimistic: Just 26% say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, down from 33% six months ago. And while views of current economic conditions remain lackluster – 26% rate them as excellent or good – expectations for the economy over the next year have become more negative than they were in the spring.”

Biden’s Approval Drops Over Afghanistan Pullout

49%

Gallup: “Gallup’s latest job approval rating for President Joe Biden, conducted mostly before the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban earlier this week, is 49%.” “With Biden’s last two job approval ratings around 50%, the honeymoon phase of his presidency is over. His approval shows its first sustained decline and now sits below the historical average 53% job approval rating. The Afghanistan crisis may serve to further erode his public support.” A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds Biden’s approval rate has fallen to 50%, down from 58% last month. A new NBC News poll finds Biden’s approval rate at 49%.