2 points

Eli McKown-Dawson: “Even if Biden fully makes up his 3-point deficit in the national polls, he’ll still be favored to lose the election. Specifically, our model thinks that the Electoral College will be biased in Trump’s favor by about 2 points in 2024. … This means that Biden is only favored to win the election if he wins the popular vote by 2 points or more; he’s the underdog otherwise.”

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