Trump 40 Percent Strategy Relies on Third-Party Candidates

NBC News’ First Read: “The reaction to the news of the latest Trump campaign shake-up has ranged from shock and disbelief to laughter… But there is one strategic way it makes sense: Team Trump views the 2016 presidential contest as a race to 40%. Under that scenario, you somehow assume that Libertarian Gary Johnson will get more than 15% of the popular vote, and that the Green Party’s Jill Stein will get more than 5%.”

See the rest of the analysis below.

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Clinton Has More Than 270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win

273

Number of Electoral College votes Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives to Hillary Clinton: “New Hampshire’s new status is no small change, since we are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic, but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration.”

Trump Campaign to Get Wilder, Crazier

If you thought the old Donald Trump campaign was wild and crazy, just wait for the new Trump campaign now that Breitbart’s Steve Bannon has taken over as chief executive. … The new leadership — with Bannon and pollster Kellyanne Conway displacing Paul Manafort of the Ukrainian Connection at the top of the heap — is likely to steer Trump even more in the direction of the European far right. It also tells you something that Bannon sees Sarah Palin, about whom he made a laudatory documentary, as a model for anti-establishment politics.

E.J. Dionne

Trump’s Not Going to Pivot After All

Donald Trump, following weeks of agitation over his advisers’ attempts to temper his style, moved Wednesday to overhaul his struggling campaign by rebuffing those efforts and personally elevating two longtime associates who have encouraged his combative populism. … Trump’s decision sent a powerful signal to Republicans and Democrats alike that the real estate magnate intends to finish the presidential race on his own terms and that his closing argument to voters will defy the usual partisan template of general-election campaigns. … In its place will be a political pitch with ire directed at both parties and a fierce anti-establishment ethos, coupled with harsh critiques of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

Washington Post

Why Trump Is Doing Better in Florida Than Other Swing States

“Florida is the only battleground that moved in Trump’s direction after both conventions,” writes James Hohmann in the Washington Post. The state used to reflect national trends, Hohmann says, but those days may be over. He set out to find out why things are becoming so dreary in the Sunshine State. Here’s what he found.

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