In this most unpredictable of all presidential campaign seasons, there is at least one thing that can be counted on to hold true.
California remains a reliable stronghold for the Democratic Party, in general — and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, specifically.
That assumption is based on recent polling in the Golden State, including a well-respected USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released today.
Looking past the June 7 primary vote to the November general election, California voters are both solidly in support of the Democratic nominee, particularly if she is Hillary Clinton — and adamantly opposed to Donald Trump, should he be the Republican nominee.
The poll found that Clinton leads Trump by 31 percentage points, 59 percent to 28 percent, in California in November.
In the primary election, Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders by 11 points, 47 to 36 percent, among likely voters. Her lead narrows among all voters to 45 to 37 percent.
The vast majority of Sanders voters are ready to switch if Clinton wins the nomination. Eighty percent of Sanders voters said they would vote for Clinton in November, although just 35 percent of them said they would vote “enthusiastically.”
In an interview with a reporter, Sanders supporter Gretta Wahlen, a 32-year-old freelance writer in Los Angeles, said that Clinton “has been around for so long, and we know so much about her, and not all of it is positive.” She said she is drawn to Sanders even if “some of them are very pie in the sky and would be very difficult to get the rest of the country on board with.”
Trump has upended the race for her and her friends, Whalen said. “Now that we’re looking at a likely race against Donald Trump, [we] are all so shocked that we’re in this place where Donald Trump is a serious contender for president. [The campaign] feels a little more surreal.”
As has been true elsewhere, Clinton does well among older voters, while Sanders does better among younger voters. She leads among women by 11 percentage points and among men by 5 points.
She has large leads among African Americans and Latinos. If there is a surprise in the poll, it’s that Sanders leads among Asian Democrats, by eight percentage points.
In the poll on the Republican primary, Donald Trump leads with 37 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has 30 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 12 percent.
A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California released last week included Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who had dropped out after the survey was complete.
In the Republican race, the poll found Trump had 38 percent support, Cruz with 19 percent, and both Rubio and Kasic with 12 percent.
On the Democratic side, results were close to those in the USC/LA Times poll of all eligible Democratic voters, with 48 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Sanders.
