A poll from Survey USA [PDF] that was sponsored by televisions stations in several California markets, including KABC in Los Angeles found that support for Prop 19, the ballot initiative that would legalize pot in the state, has remained steady since the same survey polled voters three weeks ago:

Support for Prop 19 is at 47 percent, while opposition is at 42 percent, and 11 percent have yet to make up their minds.

Below the top results, what struck me, however, was how the pollsters described the various voter sub-groups in each camp. This is a nearly perfect capsulization of the perennial divide in the California electorate, Us vs. Them:

• Them, 42 percent who oppose prop 19:
  

  Opposition to 19 is above 50 percent among conservatives, Republicans, tea party supporters, pro-life voters, and the oldest voters.

• Us, 47 percent who support Prop 19:
  

  Support is above 50 percent among men, younger voters, liberals, Democrats, pro-choice voters, higher-income voters, and in the Bay Area.

That leaves a third group, of course: The 11 percent of folks that have not yet made up their minds — and as usual, it’s this group that controls the destiny of the rest of us on this issue and others.

In fact, these results are quite close to a Survey USA poll from Sept. 23-24, 2008, on Prop 8, the anti-gay marriage amendment. That poll found that 44 percent of Californians supported the anti-marriage initiative while 49 percent supported gay marriage. At that point, only 7 percent of Californians hadn’t made up their minds.

It was at that point in the cycle that anti-gay activists launched a series of false, inflammatory television ads, secretly paid for with millions in donations from out-of-state Mormons, claiming, among other things, that if Prop 8 failed to pass — in other words, if status quo was preserved and gay marriage continued to be legal — schools would be forced to “teach gay marriage” to young children.

Of course, gay marriage was legal, and there was no provision in the existing law that forced it to be taught in schools — and, for that matter, heterosexual marriage was not on the curricula of any school system in the state.

Facts did not matter to the out-of-state anti-gay activists who launched the deceptive ads — and logic did not matter to the late-to-decide voters. The initiative passed on Election Day, 52.24 percent to 47.76 percent.

One striking difference between Prop 19 in 2010 and Prop 8 in 2008 is the lack of advertising, so far, on this initiative from either side. No one is out raising big bucks on it as anti-gay activists did on Prop 8, or so it seems. There have been a few web ads, all from the opposition, and all trumpeting the long list of high-profile pols who oppose it.

In fact, if you don’t live in California, just about every California politician you may have heard of is against Prop 19: GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a former (I suppose) pot-smoker himself; Democratic Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer; Attorney Gen. Jerry Brown and his opponent in the governor’s race, Meg Whitman; and Sen. Boxer’s opponent, Carly Fiorina.

Even so, it’s not all bad news. Based on analysis Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Prop 19 appears set to pass and it may help Democrats get out the vote among young people in a way that Democrats in other states can only wish for.

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