The American public favors the new Arizona anti-immigrant law by 61 percent, according to a new NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll, but the law is already starting to do for the national GOP what Proposition 187, a 1994 anti-immigrant ballot initiative, did for the California Republican Party: Kill it.

Latinos, once a semi-swing group of voters, now have swung overwhelmingly for President Obama and the Democratic Party, and younger Hispanics are moving to the Democrats in even greater numbers… For example, 68 percent of Latinos approve of Obama’s job (compared with 48 percent of overall respondents and 38 percent of whites), and they view the Democratic Party favorably by a 54 percent-21 percent score (versus 41 percent-40 percent among all adults and 34 percent-48 percent among whites).

And their views of the Republican Party? In the poll, the GOP fav/unfav among Latinos is 22 percent-44 percent. What’s more, Latinos think Democrats would do a better job than Republicans in protecting the interests of minorities (by 58 percent-11 percent), in representing the opportunity to move up the economic ladder (46 percent-20 percent), in dealing with immigration (37 percent-12 percent), and in promoting strong moral values (33 percent-23 percent).

The only advantage they gave Republicans was in enforcing security along the border (31 percent-20 percent). And Latinos remain a sleeping — yet growing — political giant: 23 percent of them aren’t registered voters (compared with 12 percent of whites and 16 percent of blacks).

Dropping Like a Rock

• In 2004, Dems held a 22-point edge in party identification among Latinos (49 percent-27 percent)
• In 2005, it was 24 points (48 percent-24 percent)
• In 2006, it was 26 points (50 percent-22 percent)
• In 2007, it was 30 points (52 percent-22 percent)
• In 2008, it was 35 points (57 percent-22 percent)
• In 2009, it was 31 points (50 percent-19 percent)
• And so far in 2010, it has been 36 points (58 percent-22 percent)

What will likely happen next is predictable based on the model of what happened to the California Republican Party after it passed Pro 187 in 1994. Republicans, including Gov. Pete Wilson, built their campaigns that year around the initiative, which they dubbed the “Save Our State” (SOS) bill. Among other things, the bill would have forbidden undocumented aliens from accessing state services like health-care and education.

Fear and bigotry works. The measure passed, 59 percent-41 percent, and the Republicans were all reelected. But soon California Latinos, many of whose families have been here for a century and more, began abandoning the GOP for the Democratic Party.

At the same time, many Anglos re-considered the issue from the perspective of their own enlightened self-interest. Having millions of people without health care made everyone vulnerable to epidemics — and preventing a generation children from going to school would be like setting off a time bomb set to go off when those children became young adults trying to join the workforce.

Within an election cycle or two, Republicans found it was increasingly difficult to win statewide office. Meanwhile Democrats successfully pushed the courts to overturn the initiative. Prop 187 never became law, and Republican majorities in the state legislature diminished and then collapsed — with no chance even a decade later that they’ll ever return.

Of course, it’s too soon to say that this same model will play out for the national GOP, but with the party’s popularity still hobbled by the disastrous Bush presidency and the Latino population on the rise, it certainly appears that Republicans are trading a short-term win this fall for the long-term risk of permanent also-ran status.

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