Month: May 2006

Hurricane Betting Taking Internet By Storm

Buck Banks

Crap shoot: On Hurricane Season Eve it’s appropriate to consider the important variables, like cold-water upwelling, wind sheer, strike probablilities and El Niño, as well as life’s more esoteric unpredictables like chance, fate, karma or divine retribution, whatever you want to call it.

Some might say that Editor Jon is gambling daily that the San Andreas fault won’t open up and swallow him and a couple hundred thousand of his fellow Los Angelitos. By the same token, folks could say that Editor Trish and I are playing the odds — perhaps long ones — that we won’t get blown to hell and gone by a hurricane during the next six months.

Granted, by choosing to live where we live we are figuratively placing a bet that the really big bad things won’t happen to us. Same with folks in the Midwest with tornadoes and folks in the Mississippi River Valley with floods. And you know what? That’s okay because we figure we know the odds and we hunker down and prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.

‘What’s sad about this is essentially people are placing bets on an issue that affects people’s lives.’
— National Weather Service’s Greg Romano

But, according to the Miami Herald, there is a class of individual out there who is gambling on my potential misfortune. These are people placing what are called “proposition bets” on Web sites, playing the odds and trying to predict whether Florida will get clobbered by a Category 3 or higher hurricane this season.

Weather forecasts, which are based on probability, lend themselves easily to oddsmaking. But professional forecasters, who view their job as a public service, say that’s not what they have in mind when they issue predictions.

”What’s sad about this is essentially people are placing bets on an issue that affects people’s lives. That’s kind of sad,” said National Weather Service spokesman Greg Romano.

”Forecasts are there for people to help protect themselves, their lives and their property,” he said.

But wait, before we write off the owners of these sites as a life form on the level of, say, slime mold, they claim to have feelings and standards.

Mickey Richardson, CEO of BetCris.com, a Costa-Rica based site offering several hurricane-related propositions, said the idea of betting on calamities seemed depraved at first. But customers demanded the wagers.

”We had to wrestle with it, some people view it as a morbid thing to offer,” he said of his site’s storm-season bets. “But we can’t stop hurricanes. There’s been a true interest in it from the public.”

Richardson, along with CEOs of other sites, including wagerweb.com, said they’ve refused to take bets on the amount of destruction or casualties.

Well that’s a relief. At least they’re not betting on whether I’ll be maimed or killed, just how badly my hair will be mussed.

Look, I don’t really care if these idiots are betting on whether we’ll get pasted this summer or autumn like we got pasted last year — I’m gambling, too. But I’m placing my bets on 3/4-inch plywood, Duracell batteries, Coleman camping gear and FEMA. Okay, not FEMA, but on having a plan and being prepared and making sure the liquor cabinet is stocked.

So I might get whumped again this year. There’s a 1 to 5 probability that I will. But if it happens, I can take some small comfort in knowing that the dolts who bet $5 that I would get whacked will only get a payout of $1. Small vengeance, perhaps, but on Hurricane Season Eve, we are grateful for any source of comfort, no matter how small.

Ho-Hum, Bush Caught in Lie about Replacing Treasury Secretary

Jon Ponder

Remember just a few short years ago how pointing out that President Bush was a habitual, probably pathological, liar would be met with howls of derision? Now when he is caught lying hardly anyone bothers to point it out. Here’s a recent catch, via an email from Progress Report:

  • May 25, 2006:
    “No, [Treasury Secretary John Snow] has not talked to me about resignation. I think he’s doing a fine job.”
    — President Bush (apparently four days after accepting Snow’s resignation)
  • May 30, 2006:
    “The two of them [President Bush and Henry Paulson] met on the 20th of May and there was a conversation. And Hank Paulson accepted the job a day later.”
    — White House Press Secretary Tony Snow

Move over, Osama: Violent ‘Left Behind’ Video Game Preaches Terrorism Against Jews, Catholics and Gays

Jon Ponder

In “Left Behind: Eternal Forces,” a violent video game marketed by one of the executives at Pastor Rick Warren’s Purpose Driven Life business empire, Christianist children are taught that violence against non-believers is not only acceptable, it’s fun

American madrasah: It is never too early in the year to speculate about what America’s Christian Nationalists will be buying their children for Christmas this year.

One strong candidate is a gory new video game, “Left Behind: Eternal Forces.” The game is produced by the folks behind the marketing of the popular Left Behind series of fantasy novels written by Jerry B. Jenkins and Tim LaHaye that depict the world after the Apocalypse — a cataclysmic biblical event in which God’s chosen are removed from earth and the rest of us experience hell on earth, literally.

Less obvious is the game’s association with genial Pastor Rick Warren, who is sometimes called “America’s Pastor,” and who is the guiding foce behind the corporation that produces the Purpose Driven Life self-improvement books, seminars and other media for Christians. Actual Christians among Pastor Rick’s followers might be surprised at the blood-thirsty violence depicted in the game directed at the secular world and even non-evangelical people of faith:

[You] are a foot soldier in a paramilitary group whose purpose is to remake America as a Christian theocracy … to convert or kill Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, gays, and anyone who advocates the separation of church and state – especially moderate, mainstream Christians. Your mission is “to conduct physical and spiritual warfare…”

We should pause here to point out that “you” are a 13 year old boy:

[…]

Poll: Hillary’s War Stance Could Be a Problem

Buck Banks

Running on Iraq: According to a new Zogby International telephone survey, if Sen. Hillary Clinton were to face a challenge from an anti-war candidate in the fall election, she could find herself in a real battle for re-election.

Right now she seems a lock to win the nomination for re-election to a second term in the Senate. The survey of 705 likely voters in New York, including 344 Democrats, showed she has the backing of 74 percent of Dems — not one of her three opponents garners over 3 percent support. But 21 percent said they are unsure, perhaps based on her support for the war in Iraq.

Asked if the race were between Hillary Clinton and a challenger who opposed the war in Iraq, 38 percent said they would support Clinton, while 32 percent said they would back the unnamed anti-war candidate. Another 31 percent said they would support someone else or were not sure. On that question, Clinton performed better among NYC voters (45 percent versus 28 percent for the anti-war opponent), and fared well among likely voters upstate (37 percent for Clinton, 29 percent for the anti-war candidate). However, she did worse in the voter-rich suburbs of NYC, trailing the unnamed anti-war candidate, 40 percent to 31 percent.

Among independent voters, 38 percent said they would favor the anti-war candidate and 28 percent would favor Clinton. Among women, Clinton would win, 42 percent to 32 percent. Men were split, with 33 percent supporting her, 33 percent supporting an anti-war candidate and 34 percent unsure or supporting someone else.

A likely anti-war opponent has emerged in New York politics, but he’s unlikely to beat Clinton. Jonathan Tasini, a labor activist and former head of the National Writers Guild, tried to place an anti-war resolution on the Democratic platform at the state convention over the weekend, but was rebuffed on a technicality.

Tasini did not receive sufficient votes at the convention to be placed on the ballot to challenge Clinton in a primary. He has pledged to mount a petition drive to collect 15,000 signatures to force a primary campaign between him and Clinton.

Good luck, Jonathan. Hillary Clinton has every appearance of being an unstoppable steamroller through the Senate campaign and onward two years down the road when it seems inevitable that the Democrats will forfeit another presidential campaign by placing her on the ballot.

Be the First Kid on the Block to Get the 2006 Terrorism Trends Poster

Buck Banks

No black light needed: Take down your Hendrix poster, we’ve got something tons better — the official TKB Terrorism Trends 2005 map poster. “TKB” is short for “Terrorism Knowledge Base,” which is part of the National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT), which is a nonprofit organization dedicated to preventing terrorism on U.S. soil or mitigating its effects that was established after the April 1995 bombing of the Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City.

Oh, and it should be noted that the MIPT is funded through the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Grants and Training. Hmmmmm.

According to the TKB, “this large, colorful map is a must-have for analysts, law enforcement, researchers, or others interested in terrorism.” Who is “interested in terrorism” besides, say, al Qaeda and gothic death-worshippers?

Like manna for the terrorism groupie, the poster lists the 10 most active groups (top three: al Qaeda, Hamas, Taliban), top 10 most frequent targets (police, government, private citizens) and tactics (bombing, armed attack, kidnapping, assassination, arson), and the most lethal attacks for 2005 (al Qaeda has six of the top 10) — complete with lurid color photos of death and destruction. The map also offers comparison graphs for several terrorism hotspots — helpful in vacation planning.

You can download a PDF copy here. For a 24” x 34” hard-copy version, simply e-mail your name and mailing address to TKBsupport@tkb.org and TKB will ship you a copy at no cost.

Of course, then they’ll have your address, if they don’t already.

CA Gov: Westly’s Negative Ads Give Momentum to Angelides But Westly Beats Schwarzenegger by 10 Points

Jon Ponder

If the election were held today, Westly beat Schwarzenegger by 10 points, and Angelides and the governor would be tied.

The race for the Democratic nomination for California governor has tightened dramatically, according to two new polls, the Los Angeles Times poll, in which ngelides has 37 percent to Westly’s 34 percent, and the Public Policy Institute poll released last Thursday that shows 35 percent for Angelides to 32 percent for Westly.

While support for Controller Steve Westly is steady in the low 30s,Treasurer Phil Angelides has momentum. He is up 17 percentage points in this month’s Times poll. In both polls, the candidates are statistically even.

The rapid shift in favor of Angelides shows that voters are starting to focus on the June 6 election. Even so, the situation is volatile — in the Times poll, 28 percent of Democrats are still undecided.

Negative advertising changed the dyanmics. The candidates have been trading charges for three or four weeks. So far, Angelides has benefited, perhaps because the tone of Westly’s ads has been harsher.

The Westly campaign got to 33 percent by emphasizing the candidate’s postives: He is both an E-Bay millionaire and a former public school teacher. The campaign signaled late last week that it would refocus on Westly’s positives fof the next few days.

Angelides has the momentum — not to mention the endorsements of top Democrats, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein. But Westly still has a chance with Democratic voters, a majority of whom believe he has a better chance of defeating Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose approval is anemic at 44 percent.

If the election were held now, Westly would be beat the governor, while Angelides and Schwarzenegger would tie:

If the election were held today, registered voters would prefer Westly over Schwarzenegger, 50 percent to 40 percent. Angelides was virtually tied with the governor, 46 percent to Schwarzenegger’s 45 percent.

Another sign that things could change: 41 percent of voters in the Times Poll who were currently in favor of either Angelides or Westly said that they might change their mind before June 6.